Whalesbook
Sabse pehle toh West Asia mein chal rahe masle, jismein tension badhti ja rahi hai, usne poore Aluminium market mein ek dum se aag laga di hai. Prices itne upar chale gaye hain ki pichhle kai saalon ka record toot gaya hai. London Metal Exchange (LME) par aluminium futures $3,600 per tonne ke paar pahunch gaye hain. Aisa isliye ho raha hai kyunki sabko supply chain mein gadbadi ka dar hai aur Middle East ke bade smelting facilities ko nuksan pahunchne ki chinta hai. UBS ne toh 2026 tak LME aluminium ka forecast badha kar $3,250 per ton kar diya hai, jo dikhata hai ki market kitna sensitive hai.
Ab iska seedha fayda apne desh ki badi companies ko ho raha hai, jaise Hindalco Industries aur Vedanta Ltd. Hindalco ka P/E ratio lagbhag 12.7 se 14.3 ke beech hai aur market cap ₹2.27 lakh crore hai. Wahin, Vedanta ka market cap ₹2.99 lakh crore hai aur TTM P/E ratio 24.02 ke aas-paas hai. HSBC ne Hindalco ko 'Buy' rating di hai aur ₹1,310 ka target price set kiya hai, Middle East supply disruptions ko reason batate hue.
Ab baat karte hain trade ki. 15th April ko jo market mein rally dikhi, usme India-US trade talks ki progress ki bhi umeed thi. India ki ek delegation 20-22 April ko Washington ja rahi hai taaki interim trade agreement par baat pakki ho sake. Lekin scene thoda complicated hai. Pehle lag raha tha ki US India ke liye tariffs 18% kam karega, par ab US ne khud almost sabhi imports par 10% flat tariff laga diya hai. Isse deal adjust karni padegi aur India ko milne wale benefits kam ho sakte hain, jisse economic outlook mein thodi uncertainty aa gayi hai.
Par sabse badi dikkat Vedanta ke liye hai. Unke Chhattisgarh ke power plant mein ek fatal blast hua tha, jismein 16 se zyada logo ki maut ho gayi aur kai log zakhmi hue. Ab iski khoob jaanch chal rahi hai, magisterial aur internal dono. Yeh incident company ke safety standards par sawaal utha raha hai aur iske liye liability bhi ban sakti hai, jo industry ke fayde ko kam kar sakti hai.
Ek aur interesting baat yeh hai ki Europe (UK, France) aur US ke geopolitical strategies alag ho rahi hain. Europe ab Strait of Hormuz se shipping routes ko secure karne ka plan bana raha hai, jismein US ka role nahi hoga. Yeh Red Sea mein Operation Aspides jaisa hi hai, jo dikhata hai ki Europe apni alag pehchaan bana raha hai. Iss sabse long-term trade security par bhi asar pad sakta hai. Analysts Vedanta ko 'Moderate Buy' se 'Strong Buy' keh rahe hain, jismein 9-12% tak ka upside dikh raha hai. Hindalco par sentiment neutral zyada hai, par kuch 'Buy' rating bhi hai aluminium prices ke karan. Abhi market ka mood West Asia ki situation, India-US deal aur Vedanta ke internal issues par depend karega.