Whalesbook
So, Adani Enterprises ka Kutch mein jo copper plant hai, woh asli struggle mein hai. Commission hone ke 10 mahine baad bhi, yeh plant apne saal ke 5 lakh tonne refined copper ka target bilkul nahi pakad pa raha. Sources bata rahe hain ki April 2023 se February 2024 tak sirf 94,000 ton hi bana hai. Aur kya batau, March end mein toh repair ke liye band bhi karna pada tha! Yeh sab Company ke 'sab theek hai' wale claims se bilkul alag hai. Earth-i naam ki company ka satellite data bhi June se koi permanent activity nahi dikha raha, jo company bol rahi hai usse tagda contrast hai. Iska seedha asar China ke bahar copper supply par padega.
Aur yeh problem kyun ho rahi hai? Asal mein, jo copper concentrate feedstock aa raha hai na, usmein kaafi impurity hai, jaise antimony, arsenic, aur uranium. Yeh cheezein smelting process ko kharab kar rahi hain, jisse copper aur sulfuric acid ki quality bhi bigad rahi hai. Ab Adani ki procurement team saaf concentrate dhoondh rahi hai. Samjho, plant ko saal ka 1.6 million tonne concentrate chahiye, par import data bata raha hai ki February 2024 se February 2026 tak iska sirf 1/4th hi secure ho paya hai! Matlab raw material ka hi bada issue hai.
World market ka scene bhi thoda complicated hai. China poori duniya ke copper smelting ka 50% control karta hai. Waise toh electrification aur renewables ki wajah se copper ki demand badh rahi hai, par China mein demand growth slow hone ke karan woh ab khud copper export bhi kar raha hai. Isiliye, raw material ka market kaafi tight hai aur competition bahut hai, jisse smelters ka profit kam ho raha hai. Dekho, ek Indian company Hindalco ne toh ek similar period mein 1 million tonne se zyada concentrate import kiya tha, jabki Kutch Copper ne sirf 147,000 tonne! Aur Earth-i ka data bhi bata raha hai ki June 2025 ke baad se yahan activity bilkul kam ho gayi hai.
Aur bhai, Adani Group ka pehle bhi projects mein delays aur cost badhne ka history raha hai. Jaise COVID ki wajah se transmission projects late hue, ya Vizhinjam Port mein bhi kafi delays hue the. Recently, US mein ek bribery probe ki wajah se TotalEnergies ne Adani Green Energy mein investment rok diya tha, jisne group ki reputation par sawaal uthaya tha. Yeh sab chizen bhi Kutch plant ke execution risk ko aur badha deti hain, chahe copper se related na hon.
So, overall, yeh Kutch Copper plant ka underperformance Adani ke liye structural problems aur execution risks dikha raha hai. Company jo claims kar rahi hai aur jo reality hai, usmein fark nazar aa raha hai. Clean concentrate ki kami sabse bada issue hai, upar se global competition. Bloomberg Intelligence ke hisab se toh plant shayad loss mein chal raha ho, kyunki har saal 1.6 million tonne concentrate open market se khareedna risky hai. Impure feedstock toh alag se quality aur efficiency ko hit kar raha hai. Pehle CRU aur Wood Mackenzie ne estimate kiya tha ki 2026 tak yeh plant global supply mein 175,000 se 385,000 ton tak contribute karega, par abhi ke challenges dekhte hue shayad yeh forecasts change hon. Analysts toh Adani Enterprises ke baaki businesses par positive hain, par is copper plant ka future iss baat par depend karega ki woh reliable feedstock la paate hain ya nahi. Agar nahi toh yeh India ke metals production goals ke liye aur Adani ke is sector mein efforts ke liye ek bada setback ho sakta hai.