Whalesbook
Middle East mein jo tension chal rahi hai na, uski wajah se LG Chem ko apna Yeosu No. 2 naphtha cracker plant rokna pada hai. Wajah yehi hai ki Middle East mein jo conflict hai aur Strait of Hormuz se supply ruk gayi hai, usne poori supply chain mein gadbad macha di hai. Yeh plant saal mein 800,000 metric tons Naphtha bana sakta tha, abhi yeh band hai. Yeh dikhata hai ki jab supply chain aise unstable routes par nirbhar karti hai toh kitna bada risk ho sakta hai. LG Chem ka bada No. 1 plant toh abhi chal raha hai (1.2 million ton capacity wala), par No. 2 ka band hona clear signal hai ki raw material ki kami hai aur company ise tab tak start nahi karegi jab tak sab set na ho jaaye.
Yeh sirf LG Chem ki problem nahi hai, poori Asia ki petrochemical industry ki ek badi kamzori saamne aa gayi hai. Poora region toh Middle East se aane wale Naphtha par itna depend karta hai, ki woh usse ethylene aur plastics banate hain. Wahan kuch bhi gadbad ho, toh poora sector risk mein aa jata hai. 2025 mein, Asia ne 86.6 million tonnes Naphtha import kiya tha, jisme se 54% Middle East se tha. South Korea toh 60% Naphtha aur 77.5% oil toh wahi se mangwata hai. Europe mein toh spot Naphtha prices ek hi hafte mein 18% bhag gaye, lagbhag $700 per tonne tak pahunch gaye. Brent crude bhi $100 ke aas paas pahunch gaya hai.
Naphtha toh ethylene ka main ingredient hai, jo phir plastics, chemicals aur synthetic fibers banane mein use hota hai. Yehi sab cheezein packaging, construction aur car industries mein lagti hain. Toh abhi jo Naphtha ki kami ho rahi hai, usse poori Asia ki industries ko danger hai. Agar yeh problem chalti rahi, toh companies ko material ki kami, production cost badhne aur uncertainty ka saamna karna padega. South Korea ki hi do badi companies, Yeochun NCC aur Lotte Chemical, ne toh already force majeure declare kar diya hai. Yahan tak ki shipbuilding jaisi industries bhi affected hain, jinhe steel cutting ke liye ethylene gas chahiye hota hai, unke paas toh sirf 20 din ka stock bacha hai. Japan ka petrochemical sector bhi risk mein aa gaya hai, unke paas lagbhag ek mahine ka Naphtha inventory hai.
Is sab supply issue ke upar se, LG Chem pehle se hi kuch financial problems aur industry ki weaknesses se deal kar rahi hai. Unka petrochemical division pehle se hi weak global demand aur oversupply (khaas kar China se) se pareshan tha. Is wajah se operating losses bhi ho rahe the. LG Chem ne Q4 2025 mein KRW 1.57 trillion ka net loss report kiya tha. Unka P/E ratio bhi kaafi fluctuating hai, trailing twelve-month P/E 151 aur negative P/E -17.5 dikha raha hai, jo ya toh overvaluation ya profit issues ko point karta hai. South Korea ka petrochemical sector overall oversupply se lad raha hai aur government bhi competitiveness badhane ki koshish kar rahi hai. S&P Global Ratings ne bhi LG Chem par negative outlook rakha hai, chemical aur EV battery ki demand kam hone aur overcapacity ke risks ko dekhte hue. Company cost cutting aur assets bech kar apni financial position sudharne ki koshish kar rahi hai.
Abhi jo shutdown aur challenges hain, unke baad bhi kuch analysts ko LG Chem ke stock price mein potential dikh raha hai, lagbhag 44% tak upside ka target price bata rahe hain. Lekin 2026 mein profitability mein sudhar shayad limited rahe, kyunki naya capacity aa raha hai (especially China mein) aur geopolitical feedstock disruptions ka pata nahi kab tak chalega. Industry ko yeh crisis clear karne ke liye supply chains ko stable karna hoga, high raw material costs manage karne honge aur global petrochemical market ke changes ke saath adapt karna hoga. LG Chem ki GS Caltex ke saath Yeosu cracker assets ko lekar jo talks chal rahi hain, woh bhi cost competitiveness badhane ki strategy ka hissa hai.