Whalesbook
Achanak production aadha kyun ho gaya?
Asal mein, West Asia mein jo tensions chal rahi hain, uski wajah se Strait of Hormuz mein problem ho gayi hai. Petronet LNG ne is wajah se 'force majeure' declare kar diya hai, matlab woh supply nahi kar sakte.
Iska asar yeh hua hai ki India ko gas bohot kam mil raha hai. GAIL, Indian Oil, aur BPCL jaise bade players ne fertilizer units ko gas dena kam kar diya hai. Supply normal se 60-65% tak aa gayi hai, aur kuch plants mein toh 50% se bhi kam supply mil rahi hai. Isliye urea ka production bhi lagbhag 50% gir gaya hai.
Inefficiency ka chakkar aur paison ka nuksaan
Jab yeh badi fertilizer plants apni full capacity se kam chalti hain, toh unki energy efficiency bohot gir jaati hai. Estimate hai ki kam urea banane ke liye 40% zyada energy lag rahi hai! Matlab, nuksaan hi nuksaan. Upra se plant managers ko coordination mein bhi dikkat aa rahi hai, jisse equipment damage ka risk badh gaya hai.
GAIL ki nayi pricing se aur tension
Aur tension toh tab badh gayi jab GAIL ne kaha ki ab gas ke price alag alag hisabon se lagenge (contract price, pooled price, etc.). Isse paison ka hisab lagana mushkil ho gaya hai. Global market mein gas $18 per MMBtu tak bik raha hai, jabki contract price $10 per MMBtu tha.
India ki gas pe dependence
Yeh crisis dikha raha hai ki India kitna zyada imported gas par depend karta hai – urea sector ke liye toh 80% tak! Strait of Hormuz global trade ka critical route hai. West Asia ke conflicts ki wajah se globally urea prices bhi 30-50% badh gaye hain.
Thoda relief bhi hai!
Par ek relief wali baat yeh hai ki March 19, 2026 tak urea ka stock 61.14 lakh tonnes hai, jo last year ke 55.22 lakh tonnes se zyada hai. Yeh Kharif sowing season ke liye thoda buffer de sakta hai.
Aage kya?
Sabse badi chinta yeh hai ki June mein hone wali Kharif sowing ke liye farmers ko urea mil jaye. Long term mein India ko apni domestic production badhani hogi aur supply chain ko mazboot karna hoga. Yeh crisis ek mauka hai ki hum import pe reliance kam karein.