Whalesbook
Apun log jo company ka performance dekha, toh Q4 FY26 mein EBITDA 4% saal-dar-saal badha hai. Margins 70 basis points sudhar kar 18.3% ho gaye hain, ye sab raw material ke badhte cost ko customers par pass karne se hua. Full fiscal year mein volume growth toh flat tha, par management ko FY27 ke liye 5% se 10% tak ka volume growth expect hai. Pharma sector se demand badhegi, khaas kar peptides ke liye. Aur bhai, ek badi khabar hai - June 2025 se acetonitrile imports par 5 saal ki anti-dumping duty (ADD) lag gayi hai China, Taiwan, aur Russia se. Ye duty $202 se $481 per metric tonne tak hai, jo Alkyl Amines jaise domestic producers ke liye achha hai. Ammonia-based products ka manufacturing bhi dheere-dheere restart ho gaya hai. Is sab ke beech, May 6, 2026 tak company ki market cap lagbhag ₹8,993.70 crore thi aur stock ₹1,758.5 par trade kar raha tha.
Lekin sabse badi chinta valuation ki hai. Alkyl Amines ka stock abhi 43.7x se 49.9x P/E par chal raha hai, jo Indian Chemicals industry ke average 22.7x aur competitors ke 41.1x se kaafi zyada hai. Analyst Log, jaise Motilal Oswal, ne ₹1,720 ka target price diya hai, jo ki FY28 earnings par 40x multiple par based hai. Ye dikhata hai ki future growth expectations already stock mein price ho chuki hain, isiliye unka rating 'Neutral' hai. Sales growth pichhle 5 saal mein sirf 4.33% raha hai, haan profit growth achha 33.3% annually raha hai. Lekin next fiscal year ke liye projected 5-10% volume growth ko consistent execute karna padega current earnings multiple ko justify karne ke liye. Pichhle ek saal mein stock returns bhi lagbhag -10.35% se -13.3% rahe hain, jo market ke reassessment ko dikha raha hai.
Ab risks ki baat karein toh sabse bada risk hai ye sky-high valuation. Jab P/E 50x ke aas paas ho, toh chhoti si bhi galti ya growth miss hua toh stock gir sakta hai. ADD lagne ke baad bhi, Jubilant Ingrevia aur RCF jaise domestic players se competition acetonitrile market mein price recovery ko rok sakta hai. Company ne pehle bhi imported raw materials par reliance aur Middle East conflicts ke karan supply chain disruptions dekhi hain, jo abhi bhi ek vulnerability hai. FY26 mein flat volume growth ne future demand expansion ko lekar sawal khade kar diye hain. Aur bhai, ROE around 13-14% hai, jo ki high P/E ke mukable mein thoda kam lagta hai.
Motilal Oswal ka forecast hai ki FY26 se FY28 ke beech revenue, EBITDA aur PAT mein CAGR lagbhag 6% se 7% rahega. Unka ₹1,720 ka target aur 'Neutral' recommendation wahi hai. Iska matlab hai ki company grow toh karegi, par shayad utni tezi se nahi jitni valuation ke liye chahiye. Stock abhi bhi market sentiment aur execution risks ke liye sensitive hai. Production ko successful ramp-up karna aur sustained volume growth, khaas kar peptides jaise segments mein, ye company ke liye critical hoga taaki current trading multiples justify ho sakein.