US Trade Deal Ka Kamaal: Market Mein Aayi Tezi!
Yaar, U.S. President ne jab se India ke liye tariffs kam karne ka announcement kiya hai, tab se Indian capital markets mein toh jaise chaa hi gayi hai! Sabhi major indices ne naye records bana diye hain. Is situation ko dekhte hue, international brokerage Jefferies ne apne model portfolio mein bade changes kiye hain. Woh pehle jin IT stocks ko bahut pasand karte the, ab unse exit le rahe hain aur paisa daal rahe hain metals aur materials sector mein. Unki special attention Hindustan Zinc aur JSW Steel par hai.
Metals Sector Ka Future Bright?
Jefferies ko lagta hai ki Hindustan Zinc, silver aur zinc prices ke liye ek achha bet hai. Company ke paas cost-saving kaafi achha hai aur silver ke prices bhi kaafi high chal rahe hain, jo uske December quarter average se lagbhag 50% zyada hain. Agar company ki balance sheet dekhein toh Debt to EBITDA ratio sirf 0.15x hai aur Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) zabardast 85.81% hai. Jefferies ka forecast hai ki FY27 tak EBITDA mein 41% ka growth aa sakta hai. Haalanki, externally kuch analysts ne February 2026 mein is stock ko 'Hold' rating di hai, valuation concerns ke karan. Silver futures mein jab 14% ki girawat aayi thi, tab Hindustan Zinc ka stock bhi 13% gir gaya tha.
JSW Steel ke liye bhi government ka support hai. Indian government ne steel imports se bachav ke liye safeguard duties ko teen saal ke liye extend kar diya hai, jo April 2025 se 12% se shuru honge. Is policy aur China ke market adjustments ke karan JSW Steel ke earnings mein achha improvement dekhne ko mil sakta hai. Jefferies expect karta hai ki March quarter mein EBITDA 34% quarter-on-quarter badhega aur FY27 mein 45% year-on-year grow karega. Lekin, is stock ka P/E ratio filhaal 39.37x hai, jo sector average 27.39x aur peers ke 22.05x se kaafi upar hai. Analyst ratings mostly 'Buy' hain, par company ka Net Profit Margin gira hai aur current ratio short-term liquidity ko lekar thoda doubt create karta hai.
Zomato: Growth Story Ya Valuation Ka Drama?
Sabse interesting baat ye hai ki Jefferies ne Godrej Consumer Products ko hata kar, Eternal (Zomato) ko apne portfolio mein add kiya hai. Brokerage ka kehna hai ki Zomato food delivery aur quick-commerce mein consistent growth aur margin improvement dikha raha hai. Stock apne peak se gira bhi hai, jisse risk-reward profile behtar hua hai. India mein online food delivery market future mein bahut bada hone wala hai, jiska size 2034 tak USD 337.15 Billion ya 2035 tak USD 683.86 Billion ho sakta hai. Par Zomato ka valuation toh bhai, ekdum out of control hai! P/E ratio February 2026 mein 1,139.25x aur January 2026 mein 293x tha. Company ka market cap lagbhag ₹2.63 lakh crore hai, jo kaafi bada hai. Company ne March 2024 mein 'Pure Veg Mode' bhi launch kiya tha.
Aage Kya?
Jefferies ne sirf metals hi nahi, balki Sona Comstar aur Bharat Forge jaise auto component makers, Navin Fluorine International, PI Industries, SRF jaise chemical stocks aur Waaree Energies, Premier Energies, Emmvee jaise solar energy companies par bhi nazar rakhi hai. Woh yeh bhi keh rahe hain ki agar U.S. se crude oil ka import price badha toh oil marketing companies par pressure aa sakta hai. Overall, Jefferies ko India ke FY27 earnings growth par bharosa hai, jo 5 percentage point tak badh sakti hai. Banking sector mein bhi recovery aa rahi hai aur power & construction bhi recover kar sakte hain. Ye US-India trade deal ek bada positive sign hai, par global trade dynamics aur commodity prices ka dhyan rakhna padega.