Whalesbook
Results toh aaye, par profit mein kami kyu?
Dekho, Shree Cement ne Q4 FY26 mein ₹12.5 billion ka EBITDA aur ₹5.3 billion ka adjusted profit after tax report kiya hai, jo analysts ki expectations ke aas-paas hi tha. Lekin, asli masala yeh hai ki rising input costs ne company ke numbers ko kaafi affect kiya hai. Is wajah se, EBITDA mein 11% ka year-over-year drop dekha gaya, aur EBITDA per ton toh 19% gir kar ₹1,161 par aa gaya. Company ke operating profit margins bhi kam ho kar lagbhag 22% par aa gaye hain. Company ki market cap around ₹90,000-₹92,800 crore ke aas-paas hai.
Brokerage Report kya bolta hai?
Motilal Oswal jaise analysts ne stock par apna 'Neutral' rating aur ₹26,000 ka price target maintain kiya hai. Unka kehna hai ki stock ki valuations abhi 'fair' hain, lekin itni attractive nahi ki turant entry le lo. FY27/FY28 ke liye EV/EBITDA multiple 17x aur 14x hai. Agar aap current price ₹25,655 (May 2026 ki shuruaat mein) se dekho, toh zyada bada upside dikh nahi raha hai. Analysts expect kar rahe hain ki FY27 mein EBITDA per ton ₹1,143 aur FY28 mein ₹1,228 rahega, jo FY26 ke levels se kam hai.
Sector mein kya chal raha hai?
Indian cement sector mein demand toh theek hai, 6-7.5% FY26 mein aur 7-8% FY27 mein grow hone ka estimate hai, jo infra spending aur housing recovery se chalega. Par sabse bada problem hai input costs ka badhna. Petcoke prices April 2026 mein hi 19% month-on-month aur 22% year-on-year badh gaye hain. Coal prices kam hue hain, par overall cost inflation abhi bhi ek challenge hai. Companies ne prices badhane ki koshish ki hai, par competition aur zyada capacity ki wajah se woh saare costs customers par nahi daal pa rahe hain. Analysts expect karte hain ki industry mein prices 2-4% annually hi badhengi, jisse FY27 mein industry ka operating profit per ton kam ho sakta hai.
Valuation ka 'Chakkar' aur Margin ka 'Dar'
Shree Cement ki current market valuation ek badi chinta hai. Iska TTM P/E ratio 50x se 72x tak hai, jo sector ke average 36x se kaafi zyada hai. Yeh iske ROE (7-10%) ke hisaab se bhi high hai. Matlab, investors shayad future mein bahut zyada growth expect kar rahe hain. Peers se compare karein toh Ambuja Cements ka P/E 22.25x, UltraTech Cement ka 43.05x aur Grasim Industries ka 41.9x hai. UltraTech ka EV/EBITDA 22.01x hai, jo Ambuja (15.16x) aur Grasim (11.07x) se zyada hai. Margin protect karna aur badhte input costs ko manage karna ek bada challenge hai. Industry mein operating margins 150-200 basis points tak kam ho sakte hain iss fiscal mein. Stock pichhle ek saal mein -15.08% gir chuka hai, jo caution ka signal hai.
Aage kya ho sakta hai?
Future mein cement sector mein volume growth toh expected hai, par profitability ek puzzle bani hui hai. Analysts ke mutabik, Shree Cement ka 12-month price target ₹20,000 se lekar ₹35,697 tak hai, jiska average ₹27,727 nikalta hai. Yeh 11.60% tak ka potential upside dikhata hai. Kuch aur forecasts ₹28,000-₹32,000 average ke aas-paas hain, toh bear case mein yeh ₹18,000 tak bhi ja sakta hai agar FY27 guidance miss ho jaaye ya economic challenges badh jaayen. Overall, market sentiment mixed hai, jahan growth potential aur margin/valuation risks dono hain.