Whalesbook
Valuation ka bada gap?
Anand Rathi ne abhi coverage shuru ki hai aur target price rakha hai ₹675, jo current levels se kaafi upar hai. Lekin asliyat mein stock pichhle saal se 36% gir chuka hai. Brokerage company ke Room Air Conditioner (RAC) segment mein market share gain aur FY28 tak 33.1% revenue CAGR ka potential dekh raha hai. Par investors abhi balance sheet aur inventory ke issues par zyada dhyan de rahe hain, jiski wajah se analyst ka view aur market ka behaviour match nahi kar raha.
Analysis kya kehta hai?
Bade players ka kehna hai ki company backward integration aur PLI incentives se apni manufacturing badha sakti hai. Lekin history dekho toh PG Electroplast ka performance AC market ki seasonality aur channel filling par bahut depend karta hai. Pichhle 10 saal mein stock ne kamaal kiya tha, par ab competition bahut hai Amber Enterprises aur Dixon Technologies jaise players se. Haalanki, PG Electroplast pehle margins mein aage rehta tha, lekin ab demand kam hone aur orders cancel hone se fixed costs ka pressure dikh raha hai.
Risk wali baat kya hai?
Risk wali baat yeh hai ki management keh raha hai ki net cash position strong hai, par inventory levels bahut badh gaye hain, jo ki pehle ke saalon se 4 guna tak badh gaye the. Isse working capital bandh jata hai aur liquidation ka risk badh jata hai. Pahle bhi analysts ne leverage aur cash flow mein volatility ko lekar chinta jatayi hai. Company premium valuation chahti hai, par Return on Capital Employed (RoCE) plant delays aur compressor jaise zaruri parts ke approval timelines se affect ho raha hai. Agar FY27 ki demand kam hui ya RAC cycle mein koi problem aayi, toh growth guidance phir se kam ho sakti hai, aur target price bahut zyada lag sakta hai.
Aage kya hoga?
Brokerages mein bhi consensus nahi hai. Kuch analysts 'Buy' rating de rahe hain kyunki Indian EMS industry grow kar rahi hai. Par kuch quarterly results se disappoint hokar 'Sell' rating par aa gaye hain. ₹675 ke target tak pahunchne ke liye company ko working capital normalize karna hoga aur FY28 se pehle higher-margin products launch karne honge. Investors ko upcoming quarterly results par nazar rakhni chahiye, khaas kar margins aur new manufacturing capacity ke use ko lekar.