Nifty ne October series toh **0.15%** ki halki tezi ke saath khatam ki hai, lekin November ke liye mood thoda cautious hai. Rollover data weak hai, isliye abhi sab wait-and-watch mode mein hain.
Market ka current mood kya hai?
Nifty 50 ne October series 22,750 par close ki hai, jo ki bas ek chhota sa gain tha. Lekin asal khel toh data mein chhupa hai. Rollover positions 74% rahi hain, jo ki 76.3% ke 3-month average se kam hai. Iska seedha matlab hai ki traders apni positions carry forward karne mein zyada interested nahi dikh rahe.
Open Interest aur FIIs ka kya scene hai?
Overall Open Interest 9% gir kar ₹35,427 Crore par aa gaya hai. Jab OI kam hota hai, toh iska matlab hai ki log naye bets lene ki jagah apni purani positions band kar rahe hain. 'Cost of carry' bhi 66.2 se gir kar 46.7 basis points par aa gaya hai, jo market mein susti dikhata hai.
FIIs ki baat karein toh unka long-to-short ratio ab 0.13 hai, jo pehle 0.09 tha. Abhi bhi unki 88% positions short hain, lekin pehle ye 92% thi, toh thoda sa cooling down dikh raha hai.
Kahan hai dam aur kahan hai pressure?
- Bank Nifty: Yahan traders ka conviction high hai, 84.14% rollover ke saath.
- IT aur Telecom: IT mein thodi recovery dikh rahi hai aur Bharti Airtel jaisi companies ki wajah se Telecom sector kaafi strong hold kar raha hai.
- Metals: Metals aur Mining sector mein kaafi pressure hai aur yahan short positions badh rahi hain.
Next targets kya hone chahiye?
Investors ko ab 22,200 se 22,500 ke support level par nazar rakhni chahiye. Up-side mein 23,400 se 23,700 ka level resistance ki tarah act karega. Agar market ko trend reversal chahiye, toh Nifty ko 22,715 ke upar consistently trade karna hoga.