Whalesbook
Market Mein Ghabrahat, Portfolio Mein Change!
Dekho yaar, aajkal global tensions aur market ki volatility sabko pareshan kar rahi hai. Isi cheez ka fayda uthane ke liye, Kotak Institutional Equities ne apna model portfolio adjust kiya hai. Woh log ITC jaise stable stocks se nikal kar ONGC jaise energy stocks mein paisa laga rahe hain. Unko lagta hai ONGC abhi zyaada gira hua hai aur ismein future mein aane wala potential zyaada hai.
ONGC Kyun Aaya, ITC Kyun Gaya?
ONGC: Value Ka Khazana!
Kotak ne ONGC ko apne large-cap portfolio mein add kiya hai, lagbhag 1.5% assets usmein daale hain. Unka 12-month ka price target ₹375 hai, matlab lagbhag 30% ka upside dikh raha hai. Abhi ONGC ka P/E ratio FY2027 ke liye 4.8 times aur FY2028 ke liye 5.2 times hai, jo market average se kaafi kam hai. Sarkar bhi energy sector par zyada focus kar rahi hai, toh policy bhi favorable rehne ki umeed hai. Kotak ke hisaab se crude oil prices FY2027 mein $85 aur FY2028 mein $75 reh sakti hain.
ITC: Stability Mein Growth Ki Kami?
ITC mein Kotak ko 16% tak ka upside dikh raha tha, target ₹338 tha, lekin phir bhi unhone shares bech diye. Iska reason yeh hai ki ITC market girne par bhi stable raha. Yeh company ki strength hai, par ab ismein bade jumps aane ki sambhavna kam lag rahi hai. Kotak ko lagta hai ki jo stocks zyaada gire hain, unmein ab zyada reward aur risk ka achha balance hai.
Sector Comparison: Energy vs. FMCG
ONGC ka P/E ratio Reliance Industries jaise competitors se bhi kam hai. Oil India Limited bhi attractive hai, par ONGC ko government ka zyada support mil sakta hai. FMCG sector mein ITC ka mukabala HUL aur Nestle se hai, jo zyada P/E par trade karte hain. Lekin abhi energy sector mein structural change aa raha hai jisse ONGC jaisi companies ko fayda ho sakta hai. FMCG sector stable toh hai, par abhi immediate growth drivers nahi lag rahe.
Risks Ko Na Bhulein!
ONGC ke liye crude oil prices ka upar-neeche hona ek bada risk hai. Political situation bhi impact kar sakti hai. ITC ki stability usko zyada returns miss karwa sakti hai agar dusre stocks tezi se bhagein.