Whalesbook
Jefferies Ka Sabse Bada Point:
Brokerage ka maan'na hai ki passenger aur metro coaches ki demand future mein zabardast rehne wali hai, aur isi wajah se Titagarh Rail Ltd. kaafi fayde mein reh sakti hai. Jefferies ne forecast kiya hai ki Titagarh ki revenue 35% aur EPS (Earnings Per Share) 43% se grow karegi FY26 se FY30 ke beech. Passenger segment se revenue toh lagbhag 14 guna badhne ka andaza hai.
Aur Kya Hai Titagarh Ke Liye Positive?
Company apne margins ko bhi improve karne ki koshish mein hai, jisse unka RoE (Return on Equity) bhi 6% se badhkar 16% tak pahunch sakta hai FY30 tak. Brokerage ka ₹810 ka target price unke core business ko 25 guna March 2028 ke estimated EPS par value karta hai, aur unke wheel joint venture ko 2.5 guna investment par.
Lekin Risks Bhi Hain!
Abhi sab kuch acha lag raha hai, par risks bhi hai. Wagon business mein future orders ka uncertainty, execution mein challenges, aur kahin Chinese companies ka passenger coach market mein entry, ye sab Titagarh ke liye headwind ban sakte hain.
Ab Jupiter Wagons Ka Kya Scene Hai?
Jefferies ne Titagarh ko Jupiter Wagons se zyada preference di hai, kyunki growth ka gap kaafi bada hai. Jupiter Wagons ke liye EPS growth sirf 23% CAGR rehne ka andaza hai FY30 tak. Iska reason ye hai ki Jupiter Wagons ka zyada focus wagon segment par hai, jismein Jefferies ko itni strong growth nahi dikh rahi.
Jupiter Wagons Ka Valuation Aur Upside:
Brokerage ko Jupiter Wagons "growth ke comparison mein bahut expensive" lag raha hai. Unki valuation 40 guna FY27 ke estimated P/E par hai. Core business ko 20 guna March 2028 ke EPS par value kiya gaya hai, aur wheel manufacturing JV ko 3.5 guna price-to-book value par.
Analyst Kya Bolte Hain Aur Market Reaction:
Analysts generally Titagarh Rail ke saath hain, jismein 11 mein se 12 analysts 'buy' keh rahe hain. Jupiter Wagons ko kam analysts cover karte hain, jismein sirf 2 'buy' ratings hain. Monday, April 6, 2026 ko Titagarh Rail ka stock 0.6% girkar ₹611.55 par aur Jupiter Wagons 1.3% girkar ₹253.10 par trade kar rahe the, dono apne 52-week highs se kaafi neeche.