Whalesbook
JSW Cement ne FY26 ke last quarter mein kamaal kar diya! Inka consolidated net profit saal-dar-saal 985.13% badh kar ₹371.33 crore ho gaya. Yeh sab badhiya cement prices aur 12% zyada volumes ki wajah se hua. Company ko power, fuel aur raw material costs kam hone ka bhi fayda mila, haan logistics par thoda zyada kharch hua.
Price ki power vs. Slow Sales?
Company ne cement prices ko 4.8% tak badhaya hai pichhle quarter se, trade sales ka share bhi zyada hai. Lekin ek problem hai, pichhle 5 saal se overall sales growth sirf -0.20% hai. Matlab, short term mein toh sab accha hai, par long term mein revenue kaise badhega, yeh sawal hai.
Aur haan, poore FY25-26 ke liye company ne ₹798.78 crore ka net consolidated loss report kiya hai, jo pichhle saal se bhi zyada hai. Yeh dikhata hai ki company ek taraf operational gains kar rahi hai, toh doosri taraf financial health mein dikkat hai.
Debt ka bada bojh aur competitors se comparison
JSW Cement par loan kaafi hai. Net debt to equity ratio 75.4% hai aur debt to EBITDA ratio average 6.59 times hai. ROCE (Return on Capital Employed) sirf 5.23% hai aur ROE (Return on Equity) 3.93% hai. Yeh ACC aur JK Lakshmi Cement jaise bade players se kaafi kam hai.
Company ka interest coverage ratio bhi bata raha hai ki loan manage karna thoda mushkil ho sakta hai. Plan toh hai Rajasthan mein naya grinding unit kholne ka, lekin itne loan ke saath yeh growth strategy ko closely watch karna padega.
Valuation wise, company pehle 'expensive' thi, ab 'fair' ho gayi hai (EV/EBITDA 16.78). Lekin is valuation se bhi company ki fundamental weaknesses, competitors ke comparison mein, cover nahi ho pa rahi hain.
Analysts kya bol rahe hain?
Prabhudas Lilladher ne 'Accumulate' rating aur ₹142 ka price target maintain kiya hai. Unko FY26-28E mein EBITDA mein 25% aur volume mein 18% ka CAGR dikh raha hai. Yeh sab cost efficiencies aur expansion projects par depend karta hai, loan ek factor rahega.
Dusri taraf, kuch analysts 'Sell' rating de rahe hain kyunki quality metrics kam ho rahe hain aur long term fundamental issues hain, haalaanki quarterly results acche aaye hain.
Stock ne short term mein Sensex ko beat kiya hai, is saal ab tak 7.32% upar hai jabki Sensex 11.78% gira hai. Lekin bhai, sab mixed signals dekh kar thoda caution mein rehna hi behtar hai.