Whalesbook
JPMorgan Ka Meesho Par Bharosa
JPMorgan ke analyst log ab Meesho ke stock par nazar rakh rahe hain aur unhone 'Overweight' rating di hai, target price ₹215 rakha hai. Ye current price ₹189.4 se lagbhag 13.5% upar hai. Brokerage ka kehna hai ki Meesho ka Net Merchandise Value (NMV) FY26 se FY31 tak saalana 23% ki speed se badh sakta hai. Aur jo company abhi losses mein chal rahi hai, uske EBITDA margins bhi FY31 tak 4% tak pahunch sakte hain. Ye growth platform ka zyada use hone, return rates kam hone aur Mall jaise naye segments se aane ki ummeed hai. Free Cash Flow (FCF) bhi 3.1% tak ja sakta hai FY30 tak. As of April 30, 2026, Meesho ka stock kareeb ₹194.45 par tha aur market cap ₹88,931.71 crore ke aas paas tha. Lekin bhai, abhi P/E ratio negative (-0.01) hai, matlab company abhi bhi net loss mein hai.
Competition Aur Market Ka Pressure
Indian e-commerce market 2026 mein ₹225.9 billion tak pahunchne wali hai, aur yeh 15.89% CAGR se grow karegi. Lekin yahan competition bohot hai. Flipkart aur Amazon jaise bade players maujood hain jo apne network aur premium categories mein strong hain. Dusri taraf, Nykaa jaise competitors bhi pressure mein hain. Market sentiment bhi 30 April 2026 ko thoda caution wala tha, BSE Sensex lagbhag 1.5% neeche tha.
Analyst Views: Valuation Aur Execution Risks
JPMorgan ka ₹215 ka target ambitous lag raha hai, especially jab company ka P/E ratio negative hai. Ye target FY30 EV/EBITDA multiple ko discount karke nikala gaya hai. Projections ke hisaab se EBITDA aur FCF CAGR FY28-31 mein 170% aur 52% ho sakta hai, par yeh sab ad revenue badhane par depend karta hai. Meesho ka ad take-rate abhi 1.8% hai, jo global average 3.7% se kaafi kam hai. Dusre analysts jaise Axis Capital ne 'Buy' rating ke saath ₹195 ka target diya hai, jo thoda conservative hai. CLSA ne bhi 10% market share capture karne ki baat kahi hai.