Whalesbook
Arey yaar, J.B. Chemicals (JBCP) ka Q4 FY26 ka result aaya hai aur numbers dekh ke lag raha hai ki thoda struggle raha. Revenue 5% kam hokar ₹904 Crore pe aa gaya, aur net profit toh ekdum se 30% neeche ₹101 Crore pe gir gaya.
Yeh sab ho raha hai company ke internal integration efforts ki wajah se, matlab recent acquisitions ko manage karna, distribution network ko theek karna, aur jo low-margin wale trade generics the unko band karna. Iske karan EBITDA margins thode kam hue, around 22.2% ho gaye, jabki gross margins 70% tak badhe hain.
Par bhai, sab kuch bura nahi hai. Domestic business mein achhi strength dikhi hai, Q4 mein 2% grow kiya aur poore saal mein 9%! Chronic therapy segment bhi industry se behtar perform kar raha hai, aur branded generics bhi 11% badhe hain FY26 mein.
Is situation mein bhi, Prabhudas Lilladher wale analysts ne apna 'BUY' rating maintain kiya hai aur target price ko ₹2,400 set kiya hai. Yeh target FY28 earnings ke 32x valuation par hai, jabki abhi stock FY28 earnings ke 28x par trade kar raha hai. Unko lagta hai ki EBITDA next 2-3 saal mein 20% tak grow karega.
Stock ka P/E ratio abhi 47x ke aaspaas hai, jo Indian pharma sector ke average 45x ke kareeb hai. Isse lagta hai ki investors ko future growth par bharosa hai.
Future mein growth ke liye company ke paas kai reasons hain: existing brands ko alag alag countries mein le jana, sales achhi karna, acquire kiye hue brands ko bada karna, naye treatments launch karna, aur CDMO business ko extend karna. Long term mein toh ophthalmology portfolio bhi fayda dega.
Lekin haan, thoda risk bhi hai. Q4 mein net profit ka 30% girna aur operating margins ka kam hona chinta ka vishay hai. International formulations revenue 9% gira aur CDMO business 22% down tha. Q4 mein sequential revenue decline 15% se zyada tha, jo operational challenges dikha raha hai.
Analysts ne FY27 aur FY28 ke EPS estimates 1-3% kam kiye hain, par FY27 ke baad margins improve hone ki umeed hai. Company ne FY26 ke liye ₹9.30 per share ka final dividend bhi declare kiya hai. Agar integration smoothly ho gaya aur international operations stable ho gaye, toh FY27 tak revenue growth mid-teen levels par wapas aa sakta hai.