Toh bhaiyo aur behno, Indian IT sector ke liye Q4FY26 earnings ka season shuru ho gaya hai, aur sabke dimaag mein ek hi sawaal hai - yeh Generative AI ka funda aage chal kar kya dhamaka karega? Pichhle mahine, matlab January mein toh IT stocks ne Nifty ko bhi hara diya tha, par phir February aur March mein situation palat gayi aur stock lagbhag 15% tak neeche gir gaye. Middle East ki tensions ne bhi thoda suspense badha diya hai.
Ek choti si achhi khabar yeh hai ki Indian Rupee 2.7% tak gira hai quarter-on-quarter, jisse companies ke margins ko thoda support milega. Lekin bhai, ab sabki nazar Q4 ke results se hat kar FY27 ke revenue guidance aur order books par hai. Matlab future ka view zyada important ho gaya hai aajkal.
Sector ke overall valuations par pressure hai. Analyst bol rahe hain ki agar AI ka dar bana raha toh NSE IT index, jo abhi FY27 earnings ke 18x par hai, shayad hi zyada upar jayega. Company-wise dekhein toh Infosys 28x, Mphasis 35x, HCLTech 25x, aur Wipro 22x ke multiples par trade kar rahe hain. Duniya bhar ki companies ka haal bhi kuch aisa hi hai; Accenture FY26 mein 3%-5% growth expect kar raha hai, aur Cognizant CY26 mein 2.5%-5% growth. Toh aisa nahi hai ki demand puri tarah khatam ho gayi hai.
Kuch areas mein achhi khabar bhi hai. JM Financial Infosys par positive hai aur Mphasis ko bhi achha growth potential dikha raha hai. ER&D (Engineering, Research, and Development) segment stable hai, aur Sagility jaise BPO firms se toh double-digit growth ki ummeed hai. Yaad hai jab late 2022/early 2023 mein bhi uncertainty thi? Tab wohi companies jaldi recover hui thi jo cloud, digital, aur AI applications mein strong thi. Matlab, different hone mein hi faida hai.
Lekin risks bhi kam nahi hain. Sabse bada risk toh yeh Generative AI hai. Client log bade projects postpone kar sakte hain kyunki woh ab AI infrastructure aur pilots par paisa lagana chahte hain. Isse discretionary IT spending waali companies ko nuksan ho sakta hai. Currency support toh temporary hai, asli pareshani wage hikes aur slow growth se aayegi agar companies specialized services par focus nahi karengi. Wipro ka toh expect kar rahe hain ki agle quarter mein growth flat ya negative ho sakta hai, deal ramp-up mein late hone ke karan. Infosys aur HCLTech ko financial services aur Europe se bhi khatra hai, jahan economic slowdown chal raha hai. Accenture jaisi companies ke paas pricing power aur service offerings zyada hain, jabki Indian IT firms ko mushkil competition aur technology changes ke beech apni valuation justify karni padegi. Middle East tensions se bhi kaam mein disturbance ho sakti hai.
Aage dekhein toh analysts ko valuation par pressure badhne ki hi ummeed hai. FY26-FY28 ke earnings estimates bhi kam kiye gaye hain. Infosys se 2%-4% revenue growth aur 20%-22% margins expect hai. HCLTech ki IT services 4%-6% grow kar sakti hain (overall 3%-5%) aur margins 17.5%-18.5% reh sakte hain. Wipro ke June quarter guidance se pata chalega ki deal execution kitni slow hai. Kuch mid-tier companies aur BPOs ko chhhod kar, zyada tar large caps par analyst 'Hold' rating de rahe hain. Jab tak Generative AI ka dar kam nahi hota ya companies strong future revenue streams nahi dikhati, tab tak bada rally mushkil lag raha hai.