Whalesbook
Valuation ka game change ho gaya?
Dekho, global brokerage Jefferies India ke share market par ab bhi bharosa kar raha hai. Unhone India ko 13.0% allocation diya hai, jo benchmark 12.5% se thoda zyada hai. Yeh sab Q1 2026 mein FIIs ke bade selling pressure ke baad hua hai. Jo market pehle 'expensive' lag raha tha, woh ab 'fair aur attractive' ho gaya hai. Is wajah se India, dusre Asian markets ke muqable mein value investors ke liye ek better choice ban gaya hai. Iran conflict ke baad se India ka performance Asian aur global emerging markets ke muqable mein kam gira hai, matlab market ne geopolitical shocks ko absorb kar liya hai. Early April 2026 tak, Nifty 50 ka P/E ratio lagbhag 20.32 tha, jabki average emerging market index 15.64 ke aas paas tha. Toh haan, India abhi bhi premium par hai, par gap kam ho gaya hai. Last year ke end mein, China aur South Korea jaise markets ne valuation badhai, par India ke multiples flat rahe.
Indian Economy hai dumdaar, FIIs ne kiya sell-off!
Q1 2026 mein FIIs ne India se kaafi paisa nikala tha, India Asia mein Indonesia ke baad dusra sabse bura perform karne wala market tha. Aisa pehle bhi hua hai, jaise October 2024 mein FIIs ne record ₹1.14 lakh crore beche the. Lekin history dikhati hai ki aise selling ke baad market recover karta hai. Nifty 50 aksar oil price spikes ke ek saal ke andar recover ho jata hai. Abhi Iran conflict ki wajah se crude oil prices $95-$100 per barrel pahunch gaye hain, aur lagta hai high rahenge. India imports par bahut depend karta hai, toh yeh risk hai inflation aur trade deficit ke liye. Par company ka economic fundamental strong hai. Q1 FY26 mein GDP growth 7.8% raha, aur FY26 ke liye forecast 6.2% se 7.8% hai. Banking sector bhi badhiya hai, GNPA aur NNPA decades mein sabse low hain. Aur DIIs (mutual funds wale bhai log) ne FIIs ki selling ko balance kiya hai.
Risks toh hain, par dekho kya ho sakta hai
Abhi bhi kuch risks hain. Iran conflict se geopolitical instability badh sakti hai, jisse oil prices aur badh sakte hain, inflation aur currency par asar ho sakta hai. RBI ko interest rates high rakhne padh sakte hain, jisse growth slow ho sakti hai. Domestic level par, agar mutual funds ka inflow kam hua toh market mein volatility aa sakti hai. FIIs abhi bhi holdings kam kar rahe hain. Kuch analysts India ko abhi bhi expensive maante hain, especially AI rally mein participation kam hone aur currency pressure ki wajah se. Indian Rupee bhi late 2025 mein record low par pahunch gaya tha. Nifty 50 ka P/E ab attractive hai, par historical average ke paas hi hai. Agar earnings growth slow hui ya geopolitical risks badhe toh gains limited ho sakte hain.
Aage kya?
Jefferies ka outlook cautious par positive hai. India ab ek 'popular bet' se nikal kar 'relative value' choice ban gaya hai. HSBC ko 2026 mein 15% EPS growth aur Sensex target 94,000 ka umeed hai. JPMorgan bhi India ko 2026 ke liye top growth market maanta hai. Market ab un sectors par focus kar raha hai jo domestic demand aur government support se chalte hain, jaise financial services, asset management, aur insurance. Yeh sab tabhi hoga jab geopolitical risks manage honge, domestic investors active rahenge, aur FIIs wapas aayenge.