Whalesbook
Toh hua yun ki, India Cements ne FY26 ke Q4 mein apna operational performance ekdum se sudhar liya. Unka EBITDA 37% zyada raha expectations se, yaani INR 1.6 billion! Pichhle saal isi quarter mein toh yeh figure sirf INR 11 million tha. Iska matlab hai ki company ne costs pe kaafi control kiya hai aur pricing power bhi badhi hai. EBITDA per tonne toh 62% badh kar INR 498 ho gaya. Profit after tax bhi loss se nikal kar positive INR 700 million ho gaya. Sales volume bhi 18% badha, 3.12 million tonnes tak pahuncha, aur capacity utilization 84% pe aa gaya, jo 11% points zyada hai. Ye numbers dekh kar investors khush hue aur stock mein turant 13% ka spike dekha gaya.
Par, jab baat aati hai stock ke price aur valuation ki, toh sabki rai ek nahi hai. India Cements abhi FY28 ke hisaab se 16 guna EV/EBITDA par trade ho raha hai, aur kuch analysts ka kehna hai ki yeh multiple future ke saare gains ko already price mein include kar raha hai. Company ka price-to-book ratio bhi sector ke average 3.10 ke comparison mein kaafi kam 1.25-1.31 hai. Yeh ek sign ho sakta hai ki market company ki overall quality ko thoda discount kar raha hai.
Agar competitors ki baat karein toh, UltraTech Cement jaise companies 22.1x EV/EBITDA par trade ho rahe hain par unka EBITDA margin 19% hai, jo India Cements se kaafi behtar hai. Aur Return on Equity (ROE) ke maamle mein toh India Cements bilkul peeche hai, sirf 0.67%-0.79% par atka hua hai, jabki ACC 11.72% aur JK Cements 14.29% kama rahe hain.
Future mein company INR 20 billion invest karne ka plan kar rahi hai capacity badhane ke liye. Isse FY27 tak net debt INR 12.7 billion se badh kar INR 20.1 billion ho sakta hai. Haalanki, Debt-to-Equity ratio abhi 0.11-0.13 ke aas paas hai, jo risk ko kam dikhata hai, par asal chinta yeh hai ki company apne paison se kitna profit kama payegi. Pichhle 5 saalon mein EBIT growth toh negative -166.52% raha hai, jo ek warning sign hai. Is sab ke baad bhi, stock ne pichhle 1 saal mein 40-50% ka rally dikhaya hai.
Analyst ratings ki baat karein toh, Motilal Oswal ne toh is stock par 'Sell' rating laga rakhi hai aur target INR 350 diya hai. Unka kehna hai ki stock 21-31% tak gir sakta hai. Baaki analysts ka consensus 'Neutral' hai, aur sabka average 12-month target INR 432.50 se INR 448.29 ke beech hai. Toh overall, number toh acche aaye hain, par future ko lekar kuch sawaal baaki hain.