Whalesbook
ITC ke cigarette business par excise duty ka impact!
Dekho, Prabhudas Lilladher ne ITC coverage start ki hai 'Reduce' rating ke saath aur target price ₹302 rakha hai. Inka kehna hai ki recent cigarette excise duty hike se kaafi dikkat ho sakti hai. Is hike aur price change ka sales volume aur profit par kya asar hoga, yeh toh abhi dekhna baaki hai. Ye ITC ke profitable tobacco division ke liye ek bada challenge hai.
Basically, December 31, 2025 ko jo excise duty hike hui thi, usse almost 60% price rise ho gaya hai. Isse tobacco sector mein chinta badh gayi hai, illegal trade badhne ka dar hai aur farmers aur retailers ki financial strain bhi ho sakti hai.
FMCG aur Paperboard segments mein growth ki ummeed
Wahi dusri taraf, ITC ke Fast-Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) aur Paperboard divisions mein growth ki kaafi ummeed hai. FMCG segment accha perform karega, haan, medium term mein profit margins par thoda pressure aa sakta hai. Paper aur Paperboard business expansion ke liye ready hai, jisme Minimum Import Price (MIP) aur kam wood costs ka fayda milega. E-commerce aur pharmaceutical industries se is segment ki demand badh rahi hai. ITC apne non-tobacco offerings ko badhane mein bhi laga hua hai, jisme health food brand 'Yoga Bar' ki parent company Sproutlife Foods ko poori tarah acquire karne ka plan hai.
Valuation aur Analysts ka view
Prabhudas Lilladher ne FY26-FY28 ke liye EPS CAGR 4.8% forecast kiya hai (Century Paper ko chhod kar). ₹302 ka target price Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) valuation par based hai. 'Reduce' recommendation caution dikha rahi hai, kyunki cigarette segment par excise duty change ka impact hai, jo abhi bhi kaafi profit generate karta hai. ITC ka current P/E ratio lagbhag 18.8x hai. Yeh iski tobacco business ki stability aur regulatory risks ke bare mein market ki concerns ko dikhata hai. Ye ratio iske 10-saal ke average P/E ratio 22.21 se bhi kam hai, jiske karan kuch analysts ise 'Value Trap' maan rahe hain.
Market Position aur Purana trend
ITC ka cigarette business, jo legal cigarette market ka lagbhag 77% share rakhta hai, excise duty hike ke baad mushkil paristhiti mein hai. Godfrey Phillips India jaise competitors bhi prices badha rahe hain. Jaise Pocket Marlboro ab ₹85 ka ho gaya hai, pehle ₹70 tha. Pichle 2014-2016 ke beech mein bhi jab excise duty badhi thi, tab ITC ne 15% se zyada volume drop dekha tha prices badhane ke baad. Analysts warn kar rahe hain ki current price adjustments se bhi volume mein kami aa sakti hai, kyunki log cheaper ya illicit products ki taraf ja sakte hain. Meanwhile, Indian FMCG sector 2025 se 2035 tak 5.62% CAGR se grow karega, jiska reason badhti urbanization aur incomes hai. Lekin, tobacco segment ka growth seedha tax policies se affected hai.