Whalesbook
ASAL mein, HUL ne Q4 FY26 mein consolidated revenue ko 8% tak badhaya hai. Aur volume bhi 6% increase hua hai. Ye growth home care, hair care aur premium personal care mein dikha, lagta hai rural demand bhi pakad rahi hai. Ye 12 quarters mein sabse tagda growth number hai.
Par bhai, yeh top-line growth apne sath margin pe kaafi pressure le kar aayi. Operating margins 23.5% tak gir gaye. Iska reason hai raw material costs mein 8-10% ka surge, especially edible oils aur crude-linked packaging mein. Price increase karke bhi company pura cost absorb nahi kar payi.
Ab aate hain valuation ki baat pe. Systematix kehta hai ki HUL abhi bhi premium par trade kar raha hai. FY27 ke liye estimated earnings ka 47x aur FY28 ka 43x ke aas-paas chal raha hai. EV/EBITDA bhi 30x ke kareeb hai. Competition mein dekho toh ITC 11-17x pe hai, jabki Nestle India 80x pe. Recent time mein Nifty FMCG index 9.21% gira hai, HUL ka stock 3.14% badha hai last year. Stock apne recent highs se bhi neeche aa gaya hai, around ₹2,040-2,100 ke level par tha early 2026 mein.
HUL ke liye biggest risk hai yeh raw material inflation ko manage karna aur revenue growth ko profit mein convert karna. Operating margins ka 23.5% pe girna, plus purani controversies bhi ek caution factor hain. Market ko HUL se bahut zyada growth ki umeed hai high valuation ke karan. Agar cost control mein gadbad hui ya volume growth slow ho gaya, toh valuation pe pressure aa sakta hai, especially jab FMCG sector hi thoda weak chal raha hai. Company ne trade discounts aur media spending bhi kam ki hai, jo future sales ko affect kar sakta hai.
Aage dekhte hain. HUL ko lagta hai FY27, FY26 se better hoga, margins bhi improve ho sakte hain. Analysts ka opinion mila-jula hai. Systematix ne 'Hold' rating rakhi hai aur target price kam karke ₹2,515 kar diya hai. ICICI Securities, Motilal Oswal aur Axis Direct jaise firms ne 'Buy' ya 'Hold' rating di hai, jisme target ₹2,510 se ₹2,800 ke beech hai. Matlab, upside thoda hi hai, 5-15% ke aas-paas. Average 12-month target ₹2,600 ke aas-paas hai. HUL ki market cap lagbhag ₹5.29 Trillion hai.