Whalesbook
Dekho, global market mein tensions badh rahe hain, aur iska seedha asar cement companies ki costs par pad raha hai. HDFC Securities ka kehna hai ki energy costs ₹200–300 per metric tonne aur packaging costs ₹100 per metric tonne tak badh sakti hain mid-Q1 FY27 se. Isse unke operating expenses ₹300-400 per metric tonne badh sakte hain.
Aur bhai, jab costs badhti hain, toh companies price increase karti hain. Par yahan scene thoda alag hai. HDFC Securities bol raha hai ki pricing power kamzor hai, matlab jitna cost badh raha hai, utna price increase karna mushkil hoga. Already jo ₹10–30 per bag ka price hike hua tha, dealers usko phir se check karenge.
Is situation ko dekh kar, HDFC Securities ne FY26/27/28 ke liye margin estimates ko bhi cut kar diya hai, lagbhag ₹10/75/45 per metric tonne se. EBITDA aur target price bhi kam kiye gaye hain sab companies ke liye.
Ek specific baat Ambuja Cement ke liye hai. HDFC Securities ne unka target multiple kam karke 15.5x kar diya hai (pehle 16.5x tha). Iska reason margin improvement aur capacity growth mein deri batayi ja rahi hai.
Ab tension wali baat toh ho gayi. Par ab aate hain 'Top Picks' par. In sab challenges ke baad bhi, HDFC Securities ne UltraTech Cement, JK Cement, aur Ambuja Cement ko sector ke sabse acche options mein rakha hai. Mana ja raha hai ki ye companies cost aur pricing pressure ko baaki se behtar handle kar paayengi.