Whalesbook
Toh Emkay Global ne Avenue Supermarts, yani DMart ke liye 'Sell' rating de di hai. Unka kehna hai ki is stock ke liye ₹3,700 ka target price rakha gaya hai. Analyst ka view hai ki agar stock ki current price levels se compare karein toh 16% tak ka girawat aa sakti hai. Yeh call aise time par aaya jab DMart ka share 1% bada tha ₹4,445 ke aas paas, jabki Nifty 0.92% gira tha. Emkay ka target 54x FY28 earnings ke multiple par based hai.
DMart abhi India ke organized retail market ka sirf 1.5% control karta hai, jo global players like Walmart se kaafi kam hai. Aur sabse bada tension quick commerce companies jaise Blinkit aur Zepto se aa raha hai. Yeh log fast delivery dekar customers ko kheench rahe hain, aur India ka quick commerce market 2031 tak $6.64 billion tak pahunch sakta hai! Reliance Retail, jo DMart ka sabse bada competitor hai, uske paas 19,000 se zyada stores hain, DMart ke sirf ~500 ke muqable. Reliance ka strategy bhi alag hai, online-offline dono mein.
DMart ki stores se jo sales aati hai (sales per square foot), woh pichle kuch saalon mein flat ho gayi hai, jo pehle 12% annual growth dikhati thi. Aur company ne jo apne stores khud khareede hain, usmein spending 60% badh gayi hai, jiski wajah se return on invested capital (RoIC) girkar 13% ho gaya hai. Return on capital employed (RoCE) bhi 17.1% tha.
Current valuation toh aur bhi pareshan karne wala hai. Trailing P/E ratio ~100x tha aur forward multiples ~70x ke aas paas. Emkay ko FY25-35 tak 19% EBITDA CAGR ka umeed hai, lekin fir bhi woh cautious hain. Dusri firms jaise JM Financial bhi 'REDUCE' rating de rahe hain, unka target bhi zyada hai par risk vs reward theek nahi lagta.
DMart ab apne stores Tier-II aur Tier-III cities mein khol raha hai jahan quick commerce ka pressure abhi kam hai. Lekin online trends ko follow karne mein DMart ka slow response aur chhota market reach future mein problem create kar sakta hai. Unka profit margin bhi 4-5% ke aas paas rehta hai, isliye chhota mota problem bhi bada impact kar deta hai.