Whalesbook
Company ne March 31, 2026 ko khatam hue Q4 mein kamaal kar dikhaya. Revenue mein 23% ka zabardast jump aaya, jo ₹4,220 crore tak pahunch gaya, analysts ke predictions se upar. Adjusted profit after tax bhi ₹250 crore (yaani ₹2.5 billion) raha, ismein kuch 'other income' aur GST rates kam hone ka fayda mila, jisse replacement aur OEM segments dono mein demand badhi. CEAT ne FY26 ke liye ₹35 per equity share ka final dividend bhi recommend kiya hai.
India ka tyre industry waise bhi growth mode mein hai, aur yeh market 2025 mein USD 14.45 billion se badhkar 2034 tak USD 27.67 billion hone ka andaaza hai. CEAT, jiski market cap lagbhag ₹14,663 crore hai, is bade market mein compete kar rahi hai. Iske P/E ratio 20.98x se 31.3x ke beech hai, jo competitors jaise MRF (24.16-25.8x) aur Apollo Tyres (23.9-29.5x) ke kareeb hai, par JK Tyre (15.37-17.77x) se zyada. Overall auto sector mein bhi moderate growth ka expectation hai, passenger vehicles 4-6% aur two-wheelers 3-5% badh sakte hain. Aur haan, Camso acquisition ke baad CEAT ka international presence bhi kaafi badh gaya hai, ab overseas se lagbhag 25% turnover aa raha hai.
Par, iss achhe earnings report aur strategic acquisition ke bawajood, kuch bade pressures hain jo CEAT ki near-term profitability aur valuation pe asliyat mein daag laga sakte hain. Natural rubber aur crude oil derivatives jaise raw materials ki keematon mein tezi se ek bada margin pressure aa raha hai, aur company ko lagta hai ki ye pressure agli kuch quarters tak rahega, kyunki industry shayad saare badhe hue kharchon ko customers pe na daal paaye. Emkay Global ne CEAT ko 'REDUCE' rating de di hai aur target price ₹3,600 rakha hai, saath hi FY27 aur FY28 ke EPS estimates bhi kam kar diye hain. Camso acquisition strategicaly toh theek hai, par isse shuru mein EPS kam hoga aur net debt FY26 tak lagbhag ₹2,900 crore tak pahunch jayega. Aur toh aur, Camso ki khud ki revenue 2024 mein $150 million ho gayi thi, jo 2023 mein $215 million thi, iska matlab integration mein time lag sakta hai aur normalization dheere hoga. Management ko FY28 tak 20% ke EBITDA margins ka umeed hai Camso se. Nuvama ne bhi rating 'Hold' kar di hai aur target ₹3,900 diya hai, kyunki unhe lagta hai ki filhaal zyada upside nahi hai.
Toh bhai, analyst sentiment toh split hai. Ek taraf Motilal Oswal 'BUY' rating ke saath target ₹4,228 de rahe hain, toh doosron ke targets ₹4,900 tak bhi ja rahe hain. Overall consensus recommendation 'Outperform' ke aas paas hai. CEAT ko apne core business aur Camso integration se top-line mein momentum jari rakhne ki umeed hai, aur medium-term mein steady growth ka target hai. Lekin asal mein company apni long-term potential tabhi achieve kar payegi jab woh input costs ko better manage karegi aur Camso operations ko successfully integrate karke projected margin improvements tak pahunchegi.