Whalesbook
Toh bhai scene aisa hai ki, chahe Aditya Birla Sun Life AMC (ABSL AMC) ka AUM toh 17% bhagta hua ₹4.74 lakh crore tak pahunch gaya hai (SIPs aur alternative assets ki wajah se, mast!) par profit thoda pichhe reh gaya. Q4 FY26 mein company ka PAT 18% kam hokar ₹1.87 billion ho gaya. Iska reason hai ki management fee yields 44.9 bps se 42.1 bps par aa gaye, matlab kam paisa ban raha hai per asset. Aur investment book mein kuch adjustments ne bhi thoda impact dala hai.
Agar poore FY26 ki baat karein toh revenue 10% badh kar ₹18.45 billion hua aur operating profit 11.7% badha ke ₹10.47 billion ho gaya. Poore saal ka PAT toh 5% badh kar ₹9.75 billion raha. Quarterly numbers thode down the, par saal bhar ka performance better dikh raha hai.
AUM growth toh mast chal rahi hai. Total average AUM 17% YoY badh kar ₹4.74 lakh crore ho gaya. Mutual fund AUM bhi 14% badha hai ₹4.36 lakh crore tak. SIPs se toh lagatar paisa aa raha hai, march mein yeh ₹12 billion tak pahunch gaye! Aur haan, PMS aur AIF segments mein toh 3X growth dikhi hai, ab yeh ₹320 billion ho gaye hain. Bas ek cheez hai, equity mutual fund mein market share badhana abhi bhi tough ho raha hai.
Ab future ki baat karein toh ek badi chinta hai SEBI ke naye expense ratio rules jo April 1 se lagoo ho rahe hain. Ye rules equity yields ko 3-4 bps tak kam kar sakte hain. Company management isko manage karne ki baat kar rahi hai, par margins par thoda pressure toh dikh raha hai.
Industry ki baat karein toh overall India mein MF AUM ₹81 lakh crore ko paar kar gaya hai, aur har mahine ₹31,000 crore se zyada ka SIP inflow aa raha hai. ABSL AMC ka P/E 30x hai aur market cap ₹30,300 crore ke aas paas hai. Competition mein HDFC AMC 39-41x P/E par hai, jo kaafi expensive hai. UTI AMC ka P/E 21-24x hai, par unhone Q4 mein loss bhi dikhaya tha.
Brokerage house Motilal Oswal ne ABSL AMC par 'BUY' rating maintain ki hai aur target price ₹1,230 diya hai. Unka view hai ki company AUM growth pakdegi aur alternative assets se margins manage karegi. Current price ₹1,098.90 ke paas hai, toh potential upside dikh raha hai.
Par haan, kuch risks ko nazarandaz nahi kar sakte. Yields ka kam hona, equity market share gain karne mein struggle aur naye SEBI rules se margin pressure – yeh sab cheezein valuation par asar daal sakti hain.