Whalesbook
Toh hua ye hai ki, Union Bank of India ne Q4 FY26 mein net profit toh 6.6% badha kar ₹5,316 Crore ka dikhaya aur ₹5 per share ka dividend bhi announce kiya. Lekin bhai sahab, stock ka reaction bilkul opposite tha! Share price 8.35% tak crash kar gaya kyunki market ko kuch aur hi dikkat nazar aayi.
Asal mein, bank ka Net Interest Income (NII) jo ki core earning hai, woh 1.14% gir kar ₹9,406 Crore ho gaya. Aur lending se hone wali kamai, matlab Net Interest Margin (NIM), jo pehle 2.97% tha, woh ab 2.64% par aa gaya. Ye dikhata hai ki competition aur interest rate fluctuations ke wajah se bank ki lending profitability par pressure hai.
Iske alawa, Provisions for bad loans mein kaafi izafa hua hai. Ye sequential basis par ₹1,925 Crore se badh ke ₹2,640 Crore ho gaye hain. Aur jo loans pehle NPA nahi the par ab lag raha hai ki default ho sakte hain (slippages), woh bhi ₹2,102 Crore tak pahunch gaye. Toh despite overall asset quality metrics jaise Gross NPAs 2.82% aur Net NPAs 0.48% improve hone ke, ye rising provisions aur slippages future mein loan quality ko lekar ek red flag hain.
Ek aur trend jo investors ko chinta mein daal raha hai woh hai loan growth ka deposit growth se lag bhag 3x zyada hona. Jidhar loans 9.74% badhe, wahi deposits sirf 2.72% uthe hain. Agar bank ko is gap ko bharne ke liye costly funding sources par depend karna pada, toh NIMs par aur pressure aa sakta hai.
Valuation ke hisaab se Union Bank of India abhi bhi peers jaise State Bank of India (jo 10x earnings par trade kar raha hai) se sasta hai aur Punjab National Bank aur Bank of Baroda (around 8x and 7.6x) ke kareeb hai. Toh agar sirf valuation dekhni ho toh theek hai.
Aagey dekha jaye toh ICRA ne banking sector ki FY27 outlook mein kaha hai ki credit growth dheere hogi aur deposit pressure rahega, jisse NIMs par aur constriction aa sakti hai. Toh ye sirf UBI ki problem nahi, poore sector ko iska saamna karna pad sakta hai.
Analysts ka consensus target bhi zyada bullish nahi hai, koi khass immediate upside nahi dikha raha. Unka maanana hai ki stock ka future performance margin pressure ko manage karne aur funding cost control karne par depend karega. History bhi yahi batati hai ki jab bhi UBI ke earnings mein margin concerns rahi hain, stock ne negatively react kiya hai.