Market analysts ka kehna hai ki inflation **4.82%** par pahunchne ke baad, RBI apna Repo Rate **6%** tak le ja sakta hai. October 5 se hone wali MPC meeting par sabki nazar hai, kyunki liquidity kam ho rahi hai.
Inflation ka pressure!
RBI ke saamne ab inflation ko control karne ki nayi challenge hai. August mein inflation 4.82% ho gaya hai, jo July mein 4.45% tha. Isiliye experts maan rahe hain ki FY27 tak Repo Rate 6% tak touch kar sakta hai. Ab sabki nazar October 5 se 7 ke beech hone wali Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) ki meeting par hai.
Banking system se liquidity kam ho rahi hai
RBI system mein excess cash ko handle karne ke liye sakht kadam utha raha hai. Kuch time pehle system mein surplus ₹11.16 lakh crore tak chala gaya tha, jo ab ghat kar ₹4.85 lakh crore ke aas-paas aa gaya hai. RBI ne OMO sales aur reverse repo auctions ka use karke market se liquidity kam ki hai.
Bond Market mein halchal
Interest rates badhne ki umeed mein bond market mein kaafi volatility hai. 5-year bonds ke yields 45 basis points badh gaye hain, jabki 10-year bonds mein 24 basis points ki tezi dekhi gayi hai. Sarkar ka agle 6 mahine ka borrowing plan ₹7.86 lakh crore ka hai, jiska asar yields par saaf dikh raha hai.
Investors ke liye kya hai zaroori?
High interest rates ka matlab hai ki companies ka debt expensive ho sakta hai. Halanki, zyada Indian companies ke balance sheets abhi strong hain. Lekin aapko MPC ke decisions, inflation data, aur crude oil prices (jo abhi $100 per barrel ke upar hain) par nazar banaye rakhni hogi.