Whalesbook
Toh hua yun ki late 2023 mein RBI ne unsecured loans par thoda tight control karne ko bola, aur iska asar seedha credit card issuance par pada. Pehle jahan FY24 mein cards 19% tezi se badh rahe the, FY26 mein yeh growth sirf 8% reh gaya. Matlab, companies ab aise hi kisi ko card nahi de rahi, risk management par zyada dhyan de rahi hain.
Lekin ek achhi khabar yeh hai ki log kharch karna band nahi kar rahe. Credit card spending mein fir bhi zabardast resilience dikhi hai. March mein hi total spending 24% jump kar ke ₹2.19 lakh crore ho gayi, jo last three months mein sabse zyada hai. Poore FY26 ke liye, annual spending 12% badh kar ₹23.62 lakh crore tak pahunch gayi. Growth rate kam hua hai, par abhi bhi solid hai.
Market ab bhi kuch bade players ke haath mein hi hai. Top 5 banks milakar lagbhag 74% credit cards manage karti hain. Sabse aage HDFC Bank hai, uske baad SBI Card aur phir ICICI Bank. Inka market cap bhi kaafi bada hai. Ab yeh log naye customers banane ke bajaye purane customers ko achhi services dene par focus kar rahe hain.
Spending ka sabse bada driver kya hai? E-commerce! Credit card se hone wale 64% kharch online shopping mein ho rahe hain. Physical stores mein spending ab thoda kam hai. Analysts expect karte hain ki aane wale saalon mein credit card spending 10-15% CAGR se grow karegi, jabki new card issuance growth single digit mein rahegi.
Abhi bhi kuch risks hain bhai. Agar koi bada bank galati karta hai, toh poore sector par asar padega. RBI ke naye rules ki wajah se banks ka operational cost bhi badh gaya hai. Default rates abhi 2-3% ke aas paas hain, jo manageable hai, par agar economy down hui toh yeh badh sakta hai aur banks ke liye problem ho sakti hai. Competition bhi badh rahi hai, jisse profit margins par pressure aa sakta hai.
Overall, credit card sector ab ek steady, par dheere growth phase mein hai. Banks profit aur risk management par focus karengi. E-commerce toh growth ko drive karta rahega. Woh rapid card issuance ka zamana shayad gaya, par digitally active logon ki demand achhi hai, toh controlled expansion toh hoga hi.