Whalesbook
RBI ne kiya currency par 'Full Control'!
Asal mein, RBI ne foreign exchange market mein chal rahi speculative trading ko rokne ke liye kuch bade kadam uthaye hain. Unhone banks ki open positions par limit laga di hai, sirf $100 million tak ki permission hai, pehle isse kaafi zyada thi. Aur toh aur, Rupee NDFs (non-deliverable forwards) par bhi ban laga diya hai, jahan log paise laga kar betting karte hain. Yeh sab 2013 mein hui 'Taper Tantrum' jaisi situation ko sambhalne ke liye kiya gaya hai, jab RBI ne aise hi steps liye the.
Banks ko laga $30-40 Billion ka jhatka?
Ab iska asli impact kya hai? Banks aur financial institutions ne NDF market mein alag-alag arbitrage opportunities se $30 billion se lekar $40 billion tak ka exposure bana rakha tha. Jab RBI ne suddenly rules badal diye, toh sabko yeh positions jaldi-jaldi close karni padengi. Iske chakkar mein banks ko bahut heavy loss hoga, kyunki unhe mandiyon mein paise kam rate par bechne padenge. Businesses aur foreign investors ke liye bhi hedging karna ab bahut mehenga ho jayega.
Asli challenges abhi bhi maujood
Lekin sirf yeh rules lagane se asli samasya solve nahi hogi. Duniya mein oil prices abhi bhi bahut high hain, Brent crude $106 ke paar hai, jisse India ka import bill badh raha hai aur current account deficit bhi. Foreign investors bhi apna paisa nikaal rahe hain, March mein hi unhone ₹1.14 lakh crore ke shares beche hain, jo ek record hai. Aur haan, India ke forex reserves bhi kam ho kar $700 billion se neeche, $698.34 billion par aa gaye hain. Yeh sab cheezein Rupee par pressure bana rahi hain.
Aage kya ho sakta hai?
Toh overall, RBI ne temporarily Rupee ko stable kar diya hai, lekin asli challenges abhi bhi wahi hain. High oil prices aur FII outflows ka pressure bana rahega. RBI ka yeh aggressive move dikhata hai ki situation critical hai, aur woh banking sector ko thoda nuksaan hone dekar bhi Rupee ko girne se bachana chahte hain. IMF ne India ki growth 7.3% aur World Bank ne 6.5% forecast ki hai, lekin Rupee ki stability toh in asli economic challenges par hi depend karegi.