Whalesbook
Kahan hai asli dum? NBFCs ya Banks?
Is baar ke corporate results ne sabko chaunka diya hai. Ek taraf toh Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs) market mein zabardast perform kar rahi hain, wahi dusri taraf banks ko mushkil ho rahi hai. Aisa lag raha hai ki investors ab high-yield wale credit market ki taraf zyada dekh rahe hain aur banks se thoda door ho rahe hain jahan profit kam ho raha hai.
Banking Sector mein slowdown ka reason?
Jab pichle saalon mein banks ka profit stable rehta tha, ab situation alag hai. Treasury income aur fee-based revenue mein double-digit drop dikh raha hai. Bond yields badhne ki wajah se commercial banks ki income kam ho rahi hai. HDFC Bank aur Bank of Baroda jaise banks ne toh sambhal liya hai, par overall banks ka interest income par reliance khatam ho raha hai. Aage loan growth bhi kam rehne ki ummeed hai.
NBFCs ke liye risk kya hai?
NBFCs jaise Shriram Finance aur Bajaj Finance ne retail lending se market share toh pakad liya hai, par agar economy slow hui toh inka business bhi atak sakta hai. Kuch experts maan rahe hain ki NBFCs ka 35.9% profit surge risky lending ki wajah se hai. Agar interest rates zyada time tak high rahe toh default ka risk badh sakta hai. Banks ke comparison mein NBFCs ka leverage structure zyada risky ho sakta hai.
Aage kya expect karein?
Agale saal bhi yahi trend rehne ki ummeed hai. Metals aur cement sectors ne toh acha kiya hai par woh global demand par depend karte hain. IT sector ka pata nahi chal raha hai. AI ke aane ke baad bhi demand kam hai. Lagta hai ki ab financial companies aur service providers ke beech ka gap kam hoga, kyunki sabki earnings ab normal hone wali hain.