Paytm's stock price saw a significant boost, rising 3% on Friday, January 23rd, extending its recent upward trend. This surge is largely fueled by brokerage firm Investec, which has initiated coverage with a 'Buy' rating and set a price target of ₹1,550. Investec highlighted Paytm's strong tech capabilities and deep merchant relationships as key drivers for its 'Buy' recommendation, projecting a 23% upside. They anticipate robust revenue growth and significant margin expansion driven by scale and higher-margin services, projecting EBITDA margins to reach 24% by FY28.
However, this positive analyst outlook is contrasted by actions from domestic institutional investors. BSE filings show that mutual funds collectively reduced their stake in Paytm during the October-December quarter. This marks the first instance of mutual funds trimming their holdings since Paytm's IPO in November 2021. Mutual fund ownership now stands at 14.96%, down from 16.25%. Additionally, retail investors have continued their selling spree, with their shareholding declining for the seventh consecutive quarter.
Paytm's stock is currently trading around ₹1,298.80, still approximately 40% below its IPO price. The fintech sector is increasingly focusing on sustainable monetization. While competitors like PhonePe lead in UPI transaction volumes, Paytm retains a strong kirana merchant base. Despite the institutional divestment, the overall analyst consensus remains positive, with a majority recommending 'Buy'. Average price targets from various brokerages suggest a potential upside of 20-23%. Investors will be watching Paytm's execution in its credit businesses, AI integration, and its ability to navigate regulatory changes.