Whalesbook
Achanak profit mein kaise kami? (Costs ka chakkar)
NSDL ne Q4 FY26 mein ₹4.6 billion ka operating revenue book kiya, jo pichle saal se 26% zyada hai. Ismein bhi, unke Banking Services segment ne kamaal kar dikhaya, growth 49% rahi! Poore FY26 ke liye total revenue ₹15.3 billion raha, jo 8% up hai FY25 se.
Lekin yahan aata hai asli twist! Company ke operating expenses bhi 30% bhaag gaye, jisse total expenses ₹3.5 billion ho gaye. Employee costs 29% badhe aur other expenses toh 52% upar gaye QoQ. Is wajah se, EBITDA margins 22.7% par aa gaye, jo pichle quarter mein 29.9% the aur Q4 FY25 mein 25.1% the. Pure FY26 ke liye Profit After Tax (PAT) ₹3.8 billion raha, jo 11% growth hai.
NSDL vs CDSL: Competition mein kaun aage?
India mein NSDL aur CDSL hi depository services chalaate hain. NSDL ka P/E ratio abhi lagbhag 47x hai. CDSL ka P/E 55x se 58x ke beech hai, jo NSDL se zyada hai. CDSL ka market cap bhi ₹26,500 crore se upar hai. NSDL ke paas 65,000 se zyada DP centers hain, CDSL ke paas 18,918. Lekin naye demat accounts kholne mein CDSL ne 88% market share pakad rakha hai FY23-24 mein, jabki NSDL ka incremental share kam hai. Haan, NSDL institutional clients ko better serve karta hai aur uska revenue per active account CDSL se lagbhag 3 guna hai.
Valuation ki chinta, Costs ka bojh
Sabse badi chinta NSDL ke liye iske badhte operating expenses hain. Q4 FY26 mein 'other expenses' mein 52% ka spike dekha gaya! Isne EBITDA margins ko 22.7% par laa diya hai, jo pehle FY21-FY25 ke beech 49% se 30% tak aa gaye the. Company ki future growth projections 11-15% ke liye costs control karna zaroori hai, jo abhi consistently dikh nahi raha. 47x ka P/E ratio high lag raha hai jab margins expand nahi ho rahe aur growth rate CDSL se kam hai. Haal hi mein late April 2026 mein NSDL ko ek technical issue ka bhi saamna karna pada tha.
Analysts kya bol rahe hain?
Motilal Oswal ne NSDL par 'Neutral' rating di hai aur target price ₹1,000 rakha hai. Axis Capital ne bhi 'Add' rating aur ₹1,000 ka target diya hai. Average consensus target price lagbhag ₹1,135-1,149 ke aas-paas hai, jiska matlab kuch analysts ko abhi 28% tak ka upside dikh raha hai. Par overall sentiment ye hai ki NSDL ki growth potential stock price mein already dikh rahi hai, toh zara savdhani bartein. Future projections ke hisaab se revenue, EBITDA, aur PAT mein 11%, 13%, aur 15% CAGR (FY26-28E) ho sakta hai, agar costs manage ho gaye.