Whalesbook
Muthoot Finance ne Q4 FY26 mein apna profit 135.3% year-on-year badha kar ₹3,397 crore kar liya hai. Total income bhi 65.1% jump karke ₹9,291.36 crore ho gayi. Ye numbers analyst ke ₹1,400-₹1,550 crore ke prediction se kaafi upar hain.
Ye sab gold prices badhne aur loan-to-value ratio increase hone ki wajah se hua hai. Gold loan Assets Under Management (AUM) bhi 50% badh kar ₹1.54 lakh crore ho gaya aur net interest margin 13.38% tak pahunch gaya.
Par asal drama toh yahan hai – company ke active customers peeche ke 2% se ghir gaye hain, aur ye lagataar doosra quarter hai jab aisa hua hai. Matlab chote loan waale customers shayad door jaa rahe hain. Aur haan, jo gold collateral rakha hai uska tonnage bhi 4% kam ho kar 196 tonnes ho gaya. Ye sab dekh kar stock mein 5% tak ki giraawat bhi aayi thi.
Is beech, unke competitor Manappuram Finance ne bhi comeback kiya hai, loss se nikal kar ₹405 crore ka profit report kiya hai. Unka AUM bhi 48.3% badha hai.
Overall gold loan market India mein ₹15 lakh crore tak pahunchne ka expect hai 2027 tak. Aur govt ne April 2026 se LTV (Loan-to-Value) par naye rules bhi laaye hain, jisme bade loans par LTV limit 75%-85% tak hai.
RBI agar interest rates change karta hai toh NBFCs ko fayda ho sakta hai funding cost mein, par Muthoot Finance management keh raha hai ki unke borrowing costs badh rahe hain. Ye unke profit margins par pressure daal sakta hai. Investors ne pehle bhi aise regulations se shares girte dekhe hain.
Abhi bhi bahut sare risks hain. Customer count kam hona, khaas kar chote loan waale, market share loss ya future loan volume kam hone ka signal de sakta hai. Aur sabse worrying baat yeh hai ki loan impairments mein 136.7% ki bhayanak badhotri hui hai, jo ab ₹240 crore ho gaye hain. Stage 3 loans bhi badh kar 2.35% ho gaye hain, jo pehle 1.58% the.
Analysts thode mixed hain. Jefferies ne 'Buy' rating rakhi hai but price target thoda ₹4,750 se ₹4,350 kar diya hai, customer churn par nazar rakhne ko kaha hai. Bernstein ne 'Outperform' rating rakhi hai aur target ₹4,500 diya hai.
Pure FY26 ke liye, Muthoot Finance ne record profit ₹10,607 crore kamaya hai, jo 98% zyada hai pichle saal se. Loan AUM bhi 49% badh kar ₹1,81,916 crore ho gaya. Ab dekhte hain company customer loss ko manage kar ke asset quality aur costs kaise control karti hai.