Whalesbook
Competition ne kiya kamzor?
Dekho, LIC Housing Finance ne Q3 mein apna loan disbursement sirf 4% YoY badhaya hai. Yeh expected se kam hai kyunki banks bohot aggressive offers de rahe hain, isiliye company ko bhi apne interest rates kam karne pad rahe hain. Is competition ki wajah se company ka loan book growth FY26-27 tak sirf 6-7% rehne ka andaaza hai.
Aur jab competition badhta hai toh margins par bhi pressure aata hai. Company ne December 2025 mein PLR (Prime Lending Rate) kam kiya tha clients ko rokne ke liye. Iska asar ab Net Interest Margins (NIMs) par dikhega, jo FY28 tak kam hokar lagbhag 2.4% ho sakte hain.
Brokerage kya keh raha hai?
Is situation ko dekhte hue, Prabhudas Lilladher ne stock par 'Accumulate' ki rating di hai aur target price ₹525 set kiya hai. Unhone FY26/27 ke earnings estimates bhi kam kar diye hain, kyunki headwinds (mushkilein) kaafi hain.
Badi companies se pichhad rahi hai?
Baki Housing Finance Companies (HFCs) sectors toh 15-17% AUM growth expect kar rahe hain FY26/27 mein. Lekin LIC Housing Finance toh sirf 5% grow kar paaya hai. Bajaj Housing Finance jaisi company toh 31% disbursement growth dikha rahi hai aur uska AUM bhi 23% badha hai! Matlab market share mein thodi kami aa rahi hai LIC Housing Finance ki.
Valuation aur Outlook
Is sabka asar valuation par bhi dikh raha hai. LIC Housing Finance ka P/E ratio sirf 4.9x aur P/B ratio 0.7x hai, jo Bajaj Housing Finance (P/E 30x) ya PNB Housing Finance (P/E 9.3x) se kaafi kam hai. Halanki, ROE toh 16.05% hai jo theek hai, par market ko future growth ko lekar doubts hain.
Aajkal (Feb 3, 2026) stock ₹508 ke aas-paas trade kar raha tha, pichhle 15 din mein thoda 0.30% gira bhi hai. Credit costs low rehne ki ummeed hai, par ye competition wali situation toh lambi chalne wali hai. Dekhna hoga company kaise isse deal karti hai.