Whalesbook
Okay, toh Kotak Mahindra Bank ke liye Q4 FY26 ka result aa gaya hai aur numbers kaafi solid dikh rahe hain. Standalone net profit 13% saal-dar-saal badh kar ₹4,027 crore ho gaya, jo analyst ke ₹3,782 crore ke estimate se kaafi upar hai. Iske peeche do main reasons hain: Net Interest Income (NII) 8% badh kar ₹7,875 crore ho gaya, jo projections se behtar hai, aur bank ne apni provisions ko 43% tak kam kar diya, jo ab sirf ₹516 crore hain. Asset quality bhi sudhri hai, gross NPA ratio kam ho kar 1.20% aur net NPA ratio 0.25% ho gaya. Bank ka Net Interest Margin (NIM) bhi sequential improvement dikha kar 4.67% pahunch gaya hai.
Lekin asli masala toh dividend mein hai! Itna achha profit aane ke baad bhi, board ne FY26 ke liye sirf ₹0.65 per share ka dividend recommend kiya hai, jo FY25 ke ₹2.50 per share se ek dum 74% kam hai! Yeh kaafi bada shock hai investors ke liye, aur sab log soch rahe hain ki bank ka capital allocation strategy kya hai aur future mein kya expect karna chahiye.
Ab compare karte hain baaki banks se. KMB ka NIM 4.67% hai, jo ICICI Bank (4.32%) aur HDFC Bank (3.38%) se kaafi behtar hai. Profit growth mein bhi KMB (13%) HDFC Bank (9.1%) aur ICICI Bank (8.5%) se aage hai. Lekin NII growth mein 8% ke saath yeh ICICI Bank (8.4%) se thoda peeche hai, par HDFC Bank (3.2%) se kaafi aage hai. Asset quality mein, KMB ka GNPA 1.20% hai, jo HDFC Bank (1.2%) ke barabar aur ICICI Bank (1.40%) se behtar hai.
Stock ki baat karein toh pichhle ek saal mein yeh -12% gira hai aur ab ₹383.75 ke aas paas trade ho raha hai. Analyst toh abhi bhi positive hain, mostly 'Buy' rating de rahe hain aur ₹2,300 se ₹2,500 tak ka target de rahe hain. Lekin yeh dividend cut ek warning sign ho sakta hai ki management future mein kuch challenges dekh raha hai ya capital ko retain karna chahta hai. Poora banking sector bhi abhi slow growth aur badhti deposit costs ko face kar raha hai, saath mein competition aur tech risks bhi hain. Aage FY27 ke guidance aur dividend cut ke reasons par sabki nazar rahegi.