Whalesbook
Jefferies ne toh bhai bola hai ki HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank aur Godrej Properties – yeh teeno stocks khareed lo! Banks ke liye toh credit growth aur asset quality ekdum zabardast hai, aur Godrej Properties ka collection aur pre-sales bhi kamal kar rahe hain. Lekin haan, Godrej Properties ke operations ko lekar thoda scrutiny hai, aur overall market mein inflation aur interest rate ko lekar bhi caution chal raha hai.
Sabse pehle banks ki baat karein toh HDFC Bank ne Q4 FY26 mein apna net profit 9% badha kar ₹19,200 Crore kar liya. Deposit 14% badhe aur loan 12% expand hue. ICICI Bank ka profit 8% badh kar ₹13,700 Crore raha, jahan loan growth 16% ki speed se badha. In banks ka P/E ratio lagbhag 16.1x se 17.8x ke beech mein hai, jo sector average ke aas paas hi hai. Agar peers se compare karein toh HDFC Bank 16.73x par aur ICICI Bank 18.2x par hain. Kuch analysts toh HDFC Bank ke liye ₹2,200 tak ka target bhi de rahe hain. Aage ja kar interest rates kam hone ki ummeed hai par government borrowing ki wajah se ye mushkil ho sakta hai.
Ab Godrej Properties ki taraf chalte hain. Q4 FY26 mein inke customer collections 17% badh kar ₹20,000 Crore ho gaye aur pre-sales 16% badhkar ₹34,100 Crore pahunche. Inke paas ₹1,35,000 Crore ki development pipeline hai, toh future toh acha dikh raha hai. Lekin yahan dikkat ye hai ki pichhle 3 saal mein revenue growth sirf 9.78% raha hai, ROE 6.53% hai aur operating cash flow negative mein hai. Iska P/E ratio lagbhag 30.55x-33.23x hai, jo Nifty Realty index ke 37.0 ke andar hai, aur competitors jaise DLF (34.23x) aur Lodha (25.60x) bhi aas paas hain. RBI ne repo rates ko 5.25% par rakha tha, jisse sector ko stability mili.
Risks ki baat karein toh Godrej Properties ke liye past performance ek bada factor hai. Banks ke liye, inflation badhne par RBI rates badha sakta hai, jisse lending profit aur loan demand par asar padega. Banks par contingent liabilities bhi hain. Deposit growth maintain karna aur competition se nipatna bhi important rahega. Jefferies ka target 24% se 38% tak ka upside dikhata hai, jisme Godrej Properties mein sabse jaldi upside milne ki ummeed hai.