Whalesbook
Toh bhai, ye jo profit 17% badha hai na, uske peeche kaafi reasons hain. Sabse pehle toh loans ka business 23% upar gaya hai saal-dar-saal, aur quarter-on-quarter bhi 9% badhotri hui hai. Jo pehle unsecured lending mein thodi dikkat thi, woh ab secured advances (MSME aur affordable housing waale) ki wajah se theek ho gayi hai, jo ab bank ki 73% loan book ban gayi hai. Aur haan, unsecured loans ki disbursement toh sabse record level pe hui hai!
Iske alawa, bank ke Net Interest Margins bhi 27 basis points badh gaye hain, kyuki borrowing costs 39 basis points kam ho gaye the aur unsecured loans ka share badha hai. Credit costs bhi 109 basis points gir kar lagbhag 2.4% aa gaye hain. Naye bad loans kam bane aur purane recover ho gaye. Lekin stock price abhi bhi ₹492 ke aas-paas hai, ₹530 ke 52-week high se neeche, matlab market thoda cautious hai.
Ab aate hain asli challenges par. Sabse badi chinta deposit ki hai. Customer deposit ratio sequence mein 17.9% par aa gaya hai. Thoda govt deposit withdraw hone ka reason hai, par isse pata chalta hai ki bank ko zyada mehengi funding pe rely karna pad raha hai. Poora Indian banking sector hi deposit growth se struggle kar raha hai, jisse borrowing costs badh sakte hain.
Valuation ki baat karein toh P/E ratio 15.2x hai, market cap ₹8,650 Crore ke aas-paas. Agar competitors AU SFB ( 22x P/E) ya Equitas SFB ( 14x P/E) ko dekhein toh Jana SFB kahin beech mein aata hai.
Aur sabse important baat - universal banking license! Bank dobara iske liye apply karne wala hai. Agar ye mil gaya toh ekdum game changer ho sakta hai, but RBI ka approval aur strict rules hain. Brokerage firm Systematix ne 'Buy' rating de rakhi hai aur ₹520 ka target diya hai, jo current price ₹492 se bahut zyada nahi lagta. Wohi, unhone apne estimates mein license ka benefit abhi include nahi kiya hai, matlab ye ek speculative move ho sakta hai.
So basically, agar bank deposit mix theek kar paata hai aur license wali baat aage badhti hai, tabhi stock mein badi tezi dikhegi. Warna filhal analyst thoda wait and watch mode mein hain.