BSE & MCX Share Price: F&O Boom se hui Tezi, Par Agle Saal Ki Chinta?

F&O Ka Kamaal, Exchanges Ki Lottery!

Kya lagta hai, BSE aur MCX jaise Indian exchanges aajkal kyun bhaag rahe hain? Seedha reason hai Futures & Options (F&O) trading ka boom! Jab market mein yeh F&O ka volume badhta hai na, toh exchanges ki toh lottery nikal jaati hai. Samajh lo, unka business model aisa hai ki jitna zyada trade hoga, utna zyada profit. Is boom ne MCX ko pichhle saal mein 121.7% aur BSE ko 59.2% ka returns diya hai.

Iske bilkul opposite, CDSL aur NSDL jaise depositories jo accounts manage karte hain, woh pichhad gaye. CDSL toh 4% tak gir gaya, aur NSDL, jo last year hi list hua hai, usne sirf 10% ka gain dikhaya hai IPO price se.

Exchanges Kaise Kamaate Hain?

Market experts ka kehna hai ki exchanges 'volume-leveraged' model par kaam karte hain. Jaise MCX mein F&O ka average daily turnover haal hi mein ₹7.5 trillion touch kiya hai, jisse Q3 FY26 mein profit 150% badh gaya aur revenue 120% upar chala gaya. BSE bhi ab derivatives mein kaafi strong ho gaya hai, equity derivatives se lagbhag 60% revenue aa raha hai. Transaction income FY23 mein ₹2.4 billion thi, jo FY26 ke pehle 9 mahine mein ₹24.8 billion ho gayi, aur EBITDA margins 24% se 64% ho gaye!

Par Aage Kya? Growth Ki Fikar?

Lekin ab sabse bada sawal yeh hai ki yeh jo hyper-growth chal rahi hai na, yeh kitna time tikegi? Analysts keh rahe hain ki yeh growth 80% tak is F&O boom par depend karti hai. Aage teen bade risks hain:

1. SEBI Ka Change: SEBI STT (Securities Transaction Tax) badha sakta hai ya position limits laga sakta hai, jisse volumes 15-20% kam ho sakte hain.
2. Market Ka Mood: Agar market mein badi girawat aayi, toh retail traders F&O se nikal sakte hain.
3. Base Effect: FY26 mein itna high volume ho gaya hai ki FY27 mein growth dikhana mushkil hoga.

Isliye, analysts expect kar rahe hain ki exchanges ki earnings growth ab 20-25% se 12-15% par aa jayegi.

Depositories Ka Future

Depositories 'account-based utilities' ki tarah hain. CDSL per account saal mein ₹15-25 kamata hai, trade ho ya na ho. Demat account growth bhi dheere ho kar 16.5% par aa gayi hai. Ab market sirf account numbers nahi, balki per active user kitna kama rahe hain, us par focus kar raha hai. NSDL mein institutional clients zyada hain, jo zyada revenue generate karte hain aur unka asset custody bhi zyada hai. Hariprasad K ko NSDL ek acha risk-reward option lag raha hai.