Whalesbook
India Ratings ne bola hai ki NBFCs aur HFCs ka funding cost thoda badhega. Global tensions aur economic uncertainty chal rahi hai na, isliye bond market thoda unstable hai aur borrowing mehnga ho raha hai. Banks ke paas bhi deposit ke liye competition aur high loan-to-deposit ratio hai, isliye woh bhi policy rate cuts ka fayda pura nahi de paa rahe. Toh short term mein yeh cost kam hone ki ummeed kam hai.
Isi wajah se, yeh companies ab capital markets se door jaa rahi hain aur zyada bank loans par depend kar rahi hain. Banks se loan lena zyada stable hai bond market ke muqable. Aisa lag raha hai ki Feb 2026 mein NBFCs ko bank lending 19.1% badh gayi, jo ek saal pehle sirf 6.4% thi. Yaani banks main lenders ban rahe hain.
External Commercial Borrowings (ECBs) bhi kam hi rahenge kyuki global uncertainty aur currency volatility hai. Bank loans FY27 tak NBFCs ke total borrowings ka 44-45% ho sakte hain, jo FY26 H2 mein 43% tha. Capital market funding slow ho rahi hai.
Waise, alag-alag NBFCs ki market valuation bhi different hai. Bajaj Finance 31.9x P/E par trade kar raha hai, SBI Card 28.9x par, aur Cholamandalam Investment 24.3x par. M&M Financial Services 17.0x par hai. India Shelter Finance Corporation ka ROA target 8.25-8.5% hai, jo industry average 2-4% se kaafi upar hai. Lekin government security yields 7.5% ke aas-paas chal rahe hain, jo funding cost badha rahe hain.
Ab ek point yeh bhi hai ki banks par itna depend karne se naye risks bhi aa sakte hain. NBFCs kuch hi banks par zyada nirbhar ho jayengi, jinke khud ke funding costs badh rahe hain deposit competition ki wajah se. Agar banks ko apni funding aur profit mein pressure dikhega, toh woh NBFCs ko loan dena aur mehnga kar sakte hain.
External borrowing kam hone se diversification bhi kam ho jata hai aur domestic banks par reliance badh jaati hai. Aur global uncertainty, jaise oil prices badhna aur rupee 95 ke aas-paas girna, borrowers ke cash flow ko affect kar sakta hai, especially unsecured loans mein. Loan default hone ka risk bhi badh sakta hai.
Aur yaad rahe, NBFCs public se deposit nahi le sakte, isliye unka borrowing cost banks se hamesha zyada hi rehta hai.
Toh overall, India Ratings ne FY26 ke liye NBFCs ka outlook 'neutral' rakha hai. Loan growth 18.5% ke aas-paas rehne ka andaaza hai. ICRA ke mutabik, FY27 mein profitability 2.3-2.5% rah sakti hai, agar woh credit costs manage kar paayein. Analysts bol rahe hain ki net interest margins (NIMs) shayad peak par hain aur funding costs badhne se margins kam ho sakte hain. Dekhna hoga ki yeh companies higher borrowing costs, asset quality, aur regulations ko kaise manage karti hain.