Aisa kyun ho raha hai?
Dekho, overall toh asset quality improve hui hai, matlab loan wapas milne ka rate badha hai. March 2026 tak ye 2.3% ho gaya hai jo ki best hai. Lekin 15 lakh log aise hain jinhone 4 ya usse zyada microfinance companies se loan liya hua hai. In sabka combined loan ₹15,800 crore se zyada hai, aur average loan amount ₹1 lakh se bhi upar hai, jo normal customer se double hai.
Mid-2024 se industry ne rules banaye hain ki koi bhi borrower 3 se zyada microfinance institutions se loan nahi le sakta. Iske karan, ye log jinka pehle se load zyada hai, unko naya credit milna mushkil ho gaya hai. Isse unki EMI bharne ki tension aur badh gayi hai.
Sector kaise perform kar raha hai?
Sector ke liye overall 30-day overdue rate (loans jo time par nahi diye gaye) March 2026 tak 2.3% par aa gaya hai. NBFC-MFIs ka portfolio at risk (PAR) bhi 3.9% ho gaya hai December 2025 tak. Par, jo log multiple lenders se loan liye hue hain, unme se 10% ka loan 30 se 180 din se overdue chal raha hai.
March 2025 tak 17% borrowers aise the jo 3 se zyada lenders se connected hain. Sector ab aggressive growth se hatkar 'smart lending' par focus kar raha hai, balance sheet ko stable banane ki koshish hai.
Past mein kya hua tha?
India mein 2010 mein Andhra Pradesh mein microfinance crisis hui thi, kyunki bahut zyada lending aur over-borrowing ho gaya tha. Ab RBI ne bhi income limits badha di hain - rural ke liye ₹1.25 lakh aur urban/semi-urban ke liye ₹2 lakh.
Analysts thode cautious hain. CARE Ratings ka outlook negative hai asset quality aur earnings ke liye FY2026 mein, aur ICRA bhi persistent challenges dekh raha hai. NBFC-MFIs ke liye credit costs badhe hain.
Industry expect kar rahi hai ki sector 'measured growth' ke phase mein jayega. FY2026-28 mein AUM (Assets Under Management) moderate CAGR se grow hoga. Kuch projections ke hisab se market 2034 tak USD 17.7 billion tak pahunch sakta hai, jo ki 9.77% CAGR growth hai.
