Whalesbook
Arre yaar, pichle kuch saalon se jab loan book shrink ho rahi thi aur bad loans aa rahe the, ab jaa kar microfinance sector ne badi wapsi ki hai. January se March tak, loan portfolio 5.3% grow kiya hai, aur ab ye ₹3.39 lakh crore tak pahunch gaya hai. March 2024 ke end tak ye number ₹3.22 lakh crore tha. Socho, market size jo teen saal ke low par pahunch gaya tha, woh ab theek ho raha hai.
Aur asset quality bhi sudhar gayi hai boss! Equifax India ke data ke mutabik, 30-day se zyada late payment wale loans kam ho gaye hain. Ab ye sirf 2.3% hain, jo pichle paanch quarter mein sabse kam hai. Matlab log loan time pe chuka rahe hain, jo industry ke liye bahut acchi baat hai.
Par sabka scene ek jaisa nahi hai. Growth ka credit jaa raha hai NBFC-MFIs (Non-Banking Financial Company-Microfinance Institutions) aur private banks ko. NBFC-MFIs ne apna business 7.7% badha kar ₹1.42 lakh crore kar liya, matlab market ka 42% share unke paas hai. Private banks toh aur bhi tez bhaage, 8.8% growth ke saath ₹89,548 crore tak pahunch gaye, jo market ka 26% share hai. Lekin yahan ek bada 'but' hai – Small Finance Banks (SFBs) ne apna exposure kam kar diya hai. Unka total business ₹54,234 crore se gir kar ₹50,725 crore ho gaya. Ye log ab secured loans par zyada focus kar rahe hain, credit risk manage karne ke liye. Matlab market mein alag alag strategies chal rahi hain.
Ye jo SFBs ka shift hai na, ye risk management ka chakkar hai. Unhe lagta hai ki unsecured micro-loans mein risk zyada hai, aur secured loans mein better returns mil sakte hain. Isliye woh apna focus badal rahe hain.
Yaad hai kaise loan books shrink ho rahi thi aur write-offs ho rahe the? Pichle saal December tak toh loan book 18% kam ho gayi thi. Tab credit costs 15.5% tak pahunch gaye the. RBI ne bhi madad ki, jaise NBFC-MFIs ke liye minimum asset requirement 75% se kam kar ke 60% kar diya. Aur RBI ke rules (July 2022, January 2025) hain hi interest rates aur income limits set karne ke liye, taaki borrowers ko protect kiya ja sake.
Fintech ne bhi bahut help ki hai, client tak pahunchna aur operations smooth karna aasan ho gaya hai. Lekin competition bhi badh raha hai, khas kar fintech aur lending apps se. Chote MFIs ke liye ye challenge ho sakta hai, aur over-lending ka risk bhi badh sakta hai agar dhyan na diya.
Pichla bhi aise cycles aaye hain, jaise 2010 mein Andhra Pradesh mein crisis. Ab SFBs ka peeche hatna dikhata hai ki abhi profit aur risk ka assessment alag ho gaya hai. Risk ye bhi hai ki borrowers par zyada load na ho jaye, kyunki kai log multiple loans le rahe hain. Aur competition se over-lending ka dar bhi hai.
FY2026 ke liye analyst log expect kar rahe hain ki sector 4% ke aas paas grow karega, aur FY2027 mein aur achha rebound aa sakta hai. Sab log ab balance sheet stability aur risk management par zyada dhyan denge. So overall, market recover toh ho raha hai, par SFBs ki strategy change hone se ye ek split market ban gaya hai.