Whalesbook
Loan Badhe Toh Deposits Peeche Reh Gaye
Asal mein, Indian banks mein loan aur deposit ke beech ka gap lagatar badh raha hai. Estimates ke mutabik, FY27 tak loan growth lagbhag 12% se 14.5% rehne ka andaaza hai, jabki deposits sirf 10% se 12% badhenge. Is imbalance ne loan-deposit ratio ko record high pe pahuncha diya hai, lagbhag 83% tak mid-March 2026 tak. Iska matlab hai ki banks ab mehenge tareeke se paisa arrange kar rahe hain.
Saste Deposits Ka Girta Scene
Aur ek badi baat ye hai ki bankon ke liye sabse saste wale deposits, yaani Current Account aur Savings Account (CASA) deposits, December 2025 tak 37.9% tak gir gaye hain. Pehle log apne savings account mein paisa rakhte the, par ab zyada interest milne wale fixed deposits ya dusri jagahon pe shift ho rahe hain. Isse banks ka cost of funds badh raha hai.
Profit Margins Pe Dabav
Is pura scene se bankon ka Net Interest Margin (NIM) dab raha hai. Analysts ab earnings forecasts bhi kam kar rahe hain kyunki funding costs upar ja rahe hain aur NIM recover nahi ho pa raha. April 1, 2026 se RBI ke naye Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) rules thoda liquidity free karenge, lagbhag ₹2.7-3 trillion, par main cost issue solve nahi hoga.
Mehangi Funding Par Zyada Dependance
Yeh koi nayi baat nahi hai, RBI data ke hisab se loans hamesha deposits se zyada hi badhte rahe hain pichle ek decade se. Banks ko loan dene ke liye paisa toh chahiye, toh woh mehenga tareeka hi apnate hain, chahe woh wholesale funding ho ya costly term deposits.
Kaunsi Bank Kaisi Perform Karegi?
Sabhi banks ek jaisi situation mein nahi hain. Jaise State Bank of India (SBI) ka CASA ratio December 2025 mein 39.13% tha, jo overall system average se better hai. HDFC Bank toh aur bhi accha hai, unka CASA ratio 41% ke aas paas hai, jo unko thoda buffer deta hai. Lekin jin banks ka retail deposit base kamzor hai, unko zyada mushkil ho rahi hai.
Aage Kya Hoga?
FY27 ke liye GDP growth acchi rehne ka andaaza hai, toh loan demand toh rahegi. Lekin global events, jaise geopolitical tensions, supply chain issues, energy prices mein volatility – yeh sab bhi impact kar sakte hain. Analysts unhi banks pe zyada focus kar rahe hain jinka retail deposit base strong hai, cost control accha hai, aur capital reserves solid hain. Jo banks wholesale funding pe depend karti hain, unke liye risk zyada hai. Toh bhai, NIM trends aur bankon ke profit pe nazar rakhna zaroori hai.