India ka 10-year government bond yield **7.48%** touch kar gaya hai, jisse US Treasuries ke saath **251 bps** ka gap ban gaya hai. Halanki ye gap foreign investors ko attract karta hai, lekin high hedging costs aur currency risks ki wajah se abhi market tension mein hai.
Bond market mein kya chal raha hai?
India ka benchmark 10-year bond yield badhkar 7.48% ho gaya hai, jiska matlab hai ki ab India aur US ke government bond rates mein 251 basis points (yaani 2.51%) ka antar aa gaya hai. Ye gap pichle 4 mahine mein sabse zyada hai. Normally, jab ye difference badhta hai, toh foreign investors India mein paisa lagate hain (carry trade), lekin abhi halat kuch alag hain.
Investors kyun cautious hain?
Sirf interest rate dekhna kaafi nahi hai. Foreign investors ko currency risk aur hedging cost bhi dekhna padta hai. Agar Rupee dollar ke mukable kamzor hota hai, toh interest se hone wala faayda khatam ho jata hai. Abhi hedging (insurance) itni mehengi hai ki investors ko real returns kam mil rahe hain. Jab tak ye cost stable nahi hoti, tab tak bada inflow aane ke chances kam hain.
Oil prices aur RBI ka role
Bond yields badhne ke peeche crude oil prices ka bhi bada haath hai. India oil import karta hai, toh prices badhne se inflation ka darr badh jata hai. Isse bond dealers zyada yields demand karte hain kyunki unhe lagta hai ki RBI inflation control karne ke liye interest rates ko lambe samay tak high rakh sakta hai.
Debt Mutual Fund investors ke liye seekh
Jo log Debt Mutual Funds mein hain, unhe samajhna chahiye ki jab yields badhte hain, toh purane bonds ki price gir jati hai. Isse portfolios mein short-term volatility aa sakti hai. Market ab 7.45% ke level par nazar rakhe hue hai. Agar ye 7.50% ke paar gaya, toh bond market mein aur badi halchal dekhne ko mil sakti hai. Ab sabki nazar RBI ki commentary aur oil prices par tiki hai.