Whalesbook
Q4 Results aur Dividend ka kya scene hai?
ICICI Bank ka Board of Directors Saturday, April 18 ko ek important meeting karne wala hai. Is meeting mein Q4 aur poore financial saal ke audited results approve honge. Aur haan, company koi decent dividend bhi announce kar sakti hai. Yeh sab uske baad ho raha hai jab pichhle quarter mein RBI ne ek zaroori provisioning karne ko bola tha.
Analysts kya bol rahe hain?
Analysts thoda cautiously optimistic hain. Unka kehna hai ki loan growth 15% CAGR se badh sakti hai, aur Net Interest Margins (NIMs) bhi 4.3% se 4.4% ke beech stable rahenge. Asset quality bhi strong rehne ki umeed hai, jisme Gross NPA 1.4% aur Net NPA 0.3% tak aa sakte hain FY28 tak. Credit costs bhi 45-50 basis points par stabilize hone chahiye.
Q3 mein Profit kyon gira tha?
Pichhle quarter (Q3 FY26) mein ICICI Bank ka consolidated net profit ₹12,537.98 Crore raha, jo pichhle saal ke comparison mein 2.68% kam tha. Iska main reason tha ₹1,283 Crore ka provisioning jo RBI ne agriculture loans ke liye mandatory kiya tha, kyunki unhe priority sector lending (PSL) guidelines ke hisab se classify karne mein dikkat hui thi. Iss ek-waqt ke charge ne reported profit ko affect kiya, par bank ka kehna hai ki underlying business growth theek thaak hi rahi.
Stock Reaction aur Valuation
Pichhle quarter ke results ke baad stock mein thoda pressure dekha gaya tha aur woh apne 52-week low ke aas-paas trade kar raha hai (around ₹1200). Lekin brokers ko abhi bhi upside dikh raha hai. Motilal Oswal ne 'Buy' rating ke saath target ₹1,750 set kiya hai. Average analyst target ₹1,660.64 ke aas-paas hai, jo current levels se lagbhag 36.59% ka upside dikhata hai. Bank ki market cap lagbhag ₹8.7 Trillion hai.
RBI ke PSL Rules ka Game
RBI ke naye priority sector lending (PSL) rules thode complicated hain aur banks ko inko follow karne mein dhyan dena padega. ICICI Bank ne kaha hai ki unhone apni situation ko theek kar liya hai aur provisions ko reverse bhi kar sakte hain agar guidelines follow ho jaati hain. Yeh ek alert hai sector ke liye ki regulations ko carefully manage karna hoga.