Whalesbook
Profit toh bhaaga, par expenses ka kya?
ICICI Bank ke Q4 FY26 ke results aa gaye hain aur number ekdum solid hai! Bank ne standalone net profit mein 8.5% year-on-year growth dikhaya hai, jo ki ₹13,702 Crore tak pahunch gaya. Iske peeche ka main reason hai Net Interest Income (NII) mein 8.4% ka zabardast rise, jo ₹22,979 Crore ho gaya. Treasury ke alawa, non-interest income bhi 5.6% badhkar ₹7,415 Crore ho gaya. Maza ki baat yeh hai ki bank ka Net Interest Margin (NIM) 4.32% par stable raha, jisse expectations thi ki yeh gir sakta hai. Pure FY25-26 ke liye, bank ka profit after tax 6.2% badh kar ₹50,147 Crore ho gaya hai.
Asset Quality sudhri, Provisions mein badi girawat!
Asset quality ki baat karein toh ICICI Bank ne acha performance dikhaya hai. Gross Non-Performing Assets (GNPA) ratio gir kar 1.40% ho gaya hai, jo ki pichhle quarter ke 1.53% aur pichhle saal ke 1.67% se kam hai. Sabse zabardast cheez yeh hai ki provisions mein 89% ki heavy year-on-year kami aayi hai, jo ki ₹891 Crore se kam hokar sirf ₹96 Crore reh gaye hain. Yeh improvement dikhata hai ki loan quality sudhar rahi hai, lekin itni badi kami shayad aggressive write-offs ka bhi signal ho sakti hai.
Banking Sector ka mahaul aur baaki banks?
Aajkal banking sector thoda challenging chal raha hai. Middle East mein jo tensions hain, uske chalte market mein pressure hai. Nifty Bank index toh February se March 2026 tak 17% gir gaya tha. Inflation aur GDP growth ko lekar bhi chinta hai. Isi environment mein, HDFC Bank ka market cap 26% se zyada gira, jabki ICICI Bank ka valuation lagbhag 10% neeche aaya. HDFC Bank ka Q4 FY26 profit ₹19,221 Crore raha ( 9% up). Axis Bank ka P/E ratio 16x ke aas paas hai, market cap ₹4.2 Lakh Crore ke paas. ICICI Bank ka trailing twelve-month P/E ratio lagbhag 17-18x hai, jo HDFC Bank ke barabar hi hai.
Operating Expenses aur Provisions par nazar rakhna!
Profit badha hai, yeh toh sahi hai, par kuch baatein dhyan dene wali hain. Operating expenses 12% badhkar ₹12,089 Crore ho gaye hain. Yeh growth rate net profit aur net interest income se zyada hai, jo future profits par asar daal sakta hai. Aur woh 89% wali provision drop? Haan, asset quality sudhri hai, par itni badi kami shayad accounting mein thodi 'flexibility' ya koi ek-time recovery dikha sakti hai, jisse future risks chhip sakte hain. Kuch analysts ko profit growth slow hone ki ummeed thi, isliye yeh results kuch sawaal bhi utha sakte hain, khaas kar jab competition aur funding costs badh rahi ho.
Analysts kya keh rahe hain aur Dividend?
Waise toh Wall Street analysts ICICI Bank ko lekar positive hain, bahut saare 'Strong Buy' rating de rahe hain. Unke 12-month price targets ke hisab se stock 19-23% aur badh sakta hai, jo ₹1,610 se ₹1,700 tak ja sakta hai. Analysts loan growth, deposit base aur asset quality ko positive points maan rahe hain. Management ka focus ab loan growth aur deposit management par rahega. Bank ke board ne ₹12 per share ka final dividend bhi recommend kiya hai FY26 ke liye, jo shareholder approval ke baad milega. Yeh unke confidence ko dikhata hai.