Whalesbook
HDFC Bank ka March quarter ka update dikha raha hai ki loans badh rahe hain par deposits utne nahi. Advances 17% badhkar lagbhag ₹25 lakh crore ho gaye, khaas kar retail aur SME lending mein. Par deposits sirf ₹23.5 lakh crore tak pahunche. Is gap ke karan credit-deposit ratio 106-108% ho gaya. Itna high ratio matlab bank ko mehange wholesale funding par depend karna padta hai, jo profit margins ko tight kar sakta hai.
Aur problem yeh hai ki Current Account Savings Account (CASA) ratio 37-38% par aa gaya, jo pichle quarter se 38-39% tha. India mein banks ke liye low-cost deposit collect karna mushkil ho raha hai. Industry mein bhi private banks ka CASA ratio December tak 37.2% ho gaya tha (jo pehle 47% tha). Isse banks ko expensive term deposits aur certificates of deposit use karne pad rahe hain. Loan growth acchi hone ke bawajood, funding ka yeh environment profitability ke liye challenges create kar raha hai.
Investors ne HDFC Bank ko lekar apni expectations change kar di hain. Iski valuation premium competitors ke comparison mein kaafi kam ho gayi hai. April ki shuruaat tak, HDFC Bank 1.8 times forward price-to-book (P/B) ratio par trade kar raha tha. Yeh ICICI Bank ke 2.65 times aur Axis Bank ke valuation se kaafi kam hai. Stock 25% tak gir chuka hai year-to-date March tak aur apne 52-week low ke aas paas trade kar raha tha. Iska price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple bhi historical average se neeche hai. Bank ki market value ₹1.7 lakh crore kam ho gayi hai.
Investors ki chinta badhane wale governance issues bhi hain. Jaise ki March mein ex-part-time chairman Atanu Chakraborty ka achanak resign karna. Unhone kaha ki bank ke values ke saath mismatch hai, khaas kar AT-1 bond mis-selling scandal par der se hui action ke karan. Yeh scandal Dubai branch se shuru hua tha, jisme NRI clients ko high-risk bonds galat tarike se beche gaye the. Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA) ne bhi action liya tha, jaise new customer onboarding par rok lagana. Teen senior executives ko nikal diya gaya. Chakraborty ne mana ki management ne is issue ko pehle sirf 'technical lapse' samjha, conduct problem nahi. Accountability action mein aath saal lag gaye.
Stock girne aur governance issues ke bawajood, kuch analysts ko abhi bhi opportunity dikh rahi hai. JPMorgan ne haal hi mein HDFC Bank ko 'Overweight' kiya hai, unhe attractive risk-reward aur 16-year low forward P/B multiple dikh raha hai. Analyst price targets ₹1,010 se ₹1,240 tak hain. JPMorgan ko lagta hai ki loan growth recover hogi aur expensive borrowings ko cheaper deposits se replace karne par return on assets sudhrega. Lekin kuch analysts abhi bhi cautious hain. Koi 'Reduce' rating de rahe hain, competition se margin pressure aur subsidiaries ki valuation ko dekh kar. Bank deposit growth kaise badhati hai aur funding ko kaise stable karti hai, yeh future profitability aur investor confidence ke liye crucial rahega.