Whalesbook
Sabse pehle, yeh suno ki HDFC Bank apna Q4 ka audited standalone aur consolidated results 18 April ko announce karegi. Is meeting mein dividend ka bhi announcement ho sakta hai fiscal year 2025-26 ke liye. Analysts ka guess hai ki Net Profit after tax (PAT) lagbhag ₹19,200 Crore tak pahunch sakta hai, jo pichhle saal se 9% zyada hai. Aur Net Interest Margins (NIMs) bhi stable rehne ki ummeed hai, 3.3% se 3.5% ke beech mein. Basically, numbers acche dikh rahe hain.
Ab aao stock ki baat par. Jabki analysts 'buy' bol rahe hain, share ka performance boring hai. Aaj kal yeh ₹731 ke aas-paas trade ho raha hai, jo ki iska 52-week low ₹727 ke bilkul paas hai. Yeh toh 50-day moving average (884.17) aur 200-day moving average (959.57) se bhi kaafi neeche hai. Matlab market mein abhi bearishness dikh rahi hai. Yaad hai na, pichhle saal Q4 FY25 mein toh yeh ₹1,950 ke all-time high par pahunch gaya tha!
Valuation dekhein toh, HDFC Bank ka trailing P/E lagbhag 15.6x hai. Yeh ICICI Bank (15.1-16.58x) aur Axis Bank (12-15.9x) ke aas-paas hai, par State Bank of India (SBI) ke 10.4-11.77x se zyada hai. Market cap ke hisaab se toh yeh abhi bhi India ki sabse badi private bank hai, lagbhag ₹11.41 Trillion ki. SBI (₹9.39 Trillion) aur ICICI Bank (₹8.55 Trillion) se toh yeh badi hi hai.
Aagey ka outlook solid lag raha hai. Loan growth 12-13% CAGR se badhne ka estimate hai FY26-28 tak. Deposit growth bhi 14% CAGR tak ja sakta hai, jisse credit-deposit ratio FY28 tak 94% ho jayega (abhi 98.7% hai). Indian banking sector overall grow kar raha hai, GDP growth 7.4% expected hai FY2025-26 ke liye. Aur RBI ka repo rate 5.25% par stable rehna bhi positive hai.
Par sab kuch itna bhi smooth nahi hai. Zyadatar analysts toh 'Buy' ya 'Strong Buy' bol rahe hain, jinka target ₹1,083 se ₹1,129 ke beech mein hai. Lekin kuch analysts 'Reduce' rating bhi de rahe hain. Stock ka neeche rehna, sabke positive bolne ke baad bhi, yeh dikhata hai ki investors ko kuch chinta hai. Jaise HDFC Ltd. ka integration, isse short-term mein operational issues aa sakte hain. Funding costs manage karna aur competition ke beech NIMs maintain karna bhi ek challenge hai.
Toh overall, analyst log HDFC Bank ko 'Moderate Buy' ya 'Strong Buy' recommend kar rahe hain, aur unka target ₹1,083 se ₹1,129 tak hai. Bank loan aur deposit growth par focus kar rahi hai, asset quality bhi acchi hai. Indian banking sector mein overall growth ki ummeed hai, aur HDFC Bank bhi iska fayda uthayegi. Ab dekhte hain ki yeh Q4 results bank ke liye market mein confidence wapas la sakte hain ya nahi. Yeh result kaafi important hone wala hai.