Whalesbook
Toh bhai, HDFC Bank ne latest numbers diye hain aur loan growth waqai mein achhi dikh rahi hai. March 2026 quarter tak, bank ke advances 10.2% year-on-year badh kar ₹30.57 lakh crore ho gaye. Yeh lagatar doosra quarter hai jab loan growth double digit mein rahi hai, jo HDFC Ltd. ke saath merger ke baad stability ka sign hai.
Deposits bhi 14.4% badh kar ₹31.05 lakh crore ho gaye hain, aur isse bank ka credit-to-deposit ratio bhi sudhar kar 98.5% ho gaya hai, jo merger ke baad ke peak se kam hai. Lekin yahan tak toh sab achha hai, asli picture toh aage hai.
Stock market mein, HDFC Bank ka share price ₹726.65 ke 52-week low ke paas hi trade kar raha hai. Matlab, operational performance achhi hone ke baad bhi investors ko confidence nahi aa raha. Iske peeche kai reasons hain.
Sabse pehla hai valuation. HDFC Bank ka price-to-standalone book value abhi 2.1 times ke aas paas hai, jo Kotak Mahindra Bank ke 2.8 times se kam hai. Pichhle 5 saalon mein bank ka P/BV 2.1 se 4.8 times ke beech raha hai, toh abhi yeh niche wale range mein hai. P/E ratio bhi Kotak se achha hai, Axis ke barabar, par SBI se zyada.
Doosra bada reason hai governance ko lekar chinta. Chairman Atanu Chakraborty ne March 18, 2026 ko resignation de diya tha, aur unhone kuch 'happenings and practices' ka zikr kiya tha jo unke values se match nahi karte. Isse bank ke governance standards par sawal uth rahe hain.
Aur haan, HDFC Ltd. ke mortgage business ko integrate karne ki complexities abhi bhi ek overhang hain. Credit-to-deposit ratio 98.5% hai, jo ki SBI ke ~76.6% jaise banks se kaafi upar hai, haalanki RBI koi strict ratio enforce nahi karta.
Lekin sab bearish nahi hain. JPMorgan jaise analysts ne stock ko 'Overweight' rating de di hai, aur attractive valuation ka fayda uthane ko kaha hai. Kai analysts ko long-term mein ₹1,010 se ₹1,240 tak ka target dikh raha hai. Jefferies bhi positive hai. Bas Weiss Ratings ne ise 'Sell' kiya hai.
Aage dekha jaaye toh FY26-28 mein loan growth 13% CAGR se badhne ki ummeed hai. NIMs par thoda pressure reh sakta hai, par overall profitability manage ho jayegi. Investors ab audited Q4FY26 results ka wait kar rahe hain jo April 18, 2026 ko aayenge, taaki asli recovery ka pata chal sake.