Whalesbook
Yaar, HDFC AMC ne FY26 ke liye full year mein toh kamaal kar diya. Profit 16% badh gaya aur revenue 17.8% upar gaya. Lekin, ab jab Q4 FY26 ke numbers dekhe toh profit 2.5% neeche gira hai. Yeh mix performance aur dividend change ki wajah se stock mein halki girawat aayi hai.
Bhai log, agar details mein jayein toh saal bhar mein profit ₹2,858 Crore ho gaya jo FY25 se 16% zyada hai. Revenue bhi badh kar ₹4,122 Crore ho gaya. Lekin Q4 mein profit ₹622 Crore pe aa gaya, pichhle quarter se 19% kam aur pichhle saal ke Q4 se 2.5% kam. Aur sabse badi baat, dividend! FY26 ke liye board ne bas ₹54 per share ka final dividend diya hai, jo FY25 ke ₹90 se bohot kam hai. Yaad hai, November 2025 mein 1:1 bonus share bhi mila tha. Is dividend cut ko dekh kar lagta hai ki company aage ko le kar thoda cautious hai. Stock bhi 1.01% gir kar ₹2,636 pe band hua, jabki Nifty 0.36% neeche tha.
Ab sector ki baat karein toh future toh awesome lag raha hai. Estimates hai ki 2031 tak India ka AUM (Assets Under Management) USD 5.82 Trillion ho jayega, matlab 16.59% CAGR se grow karega USD 2.70 Trillion se. HDFC AMC khud ₹9.58 lakh Crore AUM manage karta hai aur SBI Mutual Fund aur ICICI Prudential AMC ke baad top pe hai. Lekin, HDFC AMC ka valuation thoda high hai. Iska P/E ratio 32.7 se 40.2 ke beech hai, jo industry median 11.08 se bohot zyada hai. Pichhle 10 saal ka average P/E 22.42 raha hai. Competitors jaise UTI AMC ka dividend yield 4.95% hai, jabki HDFC AMC ka sirf 1.72%. Aur haan, SEBI ke naye rules on Total Expense Ratios (TER) aur passive funds pe fee caps bhi aa rahe hain, jo management fees kam kar sakte hain.
Toh bhai, saal bhar ka result accha hone ke bawajood, Q4 mein profit ka girna aur dividend ka kam hona thoda pareshan kar raha hai immediate growth ko le kar. High P/E ratio aur regulatory pressures, competition ke saath milkar profit margins pe pressure daal sakte hain. Aur upar se, Finance Act (No. 2) 2024 ke naye tax rules ne debt investments ke liye indexation benefit hata diya hai aur LTCG tax badha diya hai. Isse company ki deferred tax liability ₹69.75 Crore badh gayi hai.
Par long term mein sector ka future toh secure hai, log financial products mein invest kar rahe hain. Analysts bhi HDFC AMC ko le kar generally positive hain. Consensus target ₹2,992 hai, matlab current price se 12% upar jaane ka potential. Citi ne 'Hold' rating di hai ₹2,800 par, jabki Emkay Global ne ₹5,100 ka 'Buy' target diya hai. Toh short term mein kuch issues hain, par company ki position aur sector growth long term mein help karegi. Bus valuation ka dhyan rakhna.