Whalesbook
Investor Sale Ki Toofani Chhayi
Billionbrains Garage Ventures, Groww ki parent company, ne aaj market mein kaafi gadbad dekhi. Stock 10.5% gir gaya aur ₹182 ke level par pahunch gaya. Ye sab hua jab Peak XV Partners, Sequoia Capital, aur Ribbit Capital jaise bade private equity investors ne apna stake becha. Yeh block deal lagbhag ₹4,750 crore ki thi.
Aur jab yeh sale ho rahi thi, tabhi ₹80,000 crore ke pre-IPO shares bhi lock-in period khatm hone ke baad market mein aane ke liye taiyar the. Jab ek saath itna sara selling pressure aata hai toh stock par dabav badh hi jata hai. Kal, May 11, 2026 ko, Groww ka share ₹193.52 par band hua tha.
Valuation Ka Bhut Aur Achhe Results
Mazedaar baat yeh hai ki itne bade sell-off ke baad bhi Groww ke Q4 FY25-26 results kaafi acche aaye hain. Company ka net profit ₹686 crore ho gaya, jo pichhle saal ₹309 crore tha – matlab profit doubled se bhi zyada ho gaya! Total income bhi 81% badh kar ₹1,536 crore ho gayi aur active users 25% badh kar 1.67 crore ho gaye.
Lekin market ko yeh numbers itne convincing nahi lage, kyunki Groww ka valuation abhi bhi bahut high lag raha hai. May 2026 ki shuruaat mein, company ki market cap lagbhag ₹1.28 trillion thi, aur uska P/E ratio 62.70x se 115x ke beech tha. Compare karein toh Angel One ka market cap ₹29,247.70 crore hai aur P/E 22x-32x hai. Yahan tak ki private company Zerodha, jiski valuation ₹70,000 crore thi, woh bhi isse kam multiple par trade karti hai. Jab bade investors maal bechte hain, toh market ye sochti hai ki kya company ka growth phase khatm ho raha hai ya phir risk kam kar rahe hain, aur woh bhi aise high valuation par.
Aage Kya? Competition Aur Costs Ka Pressure
Bade investors ke sell-off aur lock-in expiry ne Groww ke stock par dabav to bana hi diya hai. High valuation ke liye company ko lagataar strong growth dikhana padega. Analysts mante hain ki Groww India ke brokerage market mein leading position par hai aur uska user base bhi bada hai. Lekin future earnings, khaas kar F&O jaise volatile segment se, par nazar rakhni hogi. Industry mein trading volumes par bhi pressure hai, jiski wajah se yeh segment, jo Groww ki 73% income ka source tha, affected ho sakta hai.
India ka wealth-tech sector grow karega, lekin competition aur regulations bhi badh rahe hain. Securities brokerage market bhi saalana 4.43% ki speed se 2030 tak grow hone ka estimate hai. Groww ko profitable rehne ke liye costs control karni hogi, trading fees ke alawa naye income sources dhoondhne honge, aur users ko affordably attract karna hoga. Agar growth speed kam hui toh high valuation ke liye yeh bada risk ban sakta hai.
Analysts Ki Rai Mili-Juli
Stock girne ke baad bhi, analysts ki Groww ke future ko lekar mili-juli rai hai, lekin long term mein mostly positive hain. JM Financial Institutional Securities ne toh 'Sell' rating dekar 13.5% ki girawat predict ki hai, valuation ko bahut high bataya hai. Iske opposite, Jefferies ne apna target ₹210 se badha kar ₹225 kar diya hai, aur Citi ne ₹225 se ₹230 kar diya hai. UBS ne 'Neutral' rating ke saath target ₹210 rakha hai. Sabhi analysts ka average target ₹235 ke aas-paas hai, jo current levels se potential gain dikhata hai. Yeh optimism user growth, wealth platform expansion, aur overall wealth-tech market ke growth par depend karta hai. Lekin valuation aur large share release ko bhi risks mein count kiya gaya hai.