Whalesbook
Asal mein, inki net interest margins acchi rahi aur loan loss provisions (LLP) kam hone se fayda mila. Iska natija hai ki Return on Assets (RoA) bhi 4.4% tak pahunch gaya. Retail finance ab total AUM ka 18% ho gaya hai.
Company ka kehna hai ki AUM growth aur tez hogi, shayad 20-25% tak ja sakti hai, kyunki microfinance operations bhi theek ho rahe hain. Profit margins aur badhne ki ummeed hai. Par yahan ek badi problem hai - stock ka valuation bahut zyada lag raha hai. Iska P/E ratio 30.7x se 49.4x tak hai, jo competitors jaise Ujjivan Small Finance Bank (P/E around 17.5x) aur Aavas Financiers (P/E around 17.8x) se kaafi zyada hai. MarketsMojo ne isko 'Very Expensive' kaha hai.
Management ko lagta hai ki asset quality dre dre improve hogi aur early collection rates bhi better ho jayenge. Lekin FY27 ke liye credit cost 3-4% ke beech rehne ka guidance hai. Ye ECL model changes aur Stage 1 loans ke liye higher provisions ki wajah se hai. Global economic issues ka bhi thoda effect dekha ja raha hai.
Ab brokers ki baat karein toh Emkay Global ne isme 'BUY' rating rakhi hai aur target price 13% badha kar ₹1,750 kar diya hai. Ye FY28 ke book value ke 2.4 times par value kar rahe hain. FY27 earnings estimates bhi 12% upar kiye hain, aur RoA 4.5-5% expect kar rahe hain FY27-FY29 ke beech. Lekin ye average analyst target jo ₹1516 ke aas paas hai, usse alag hai. Aur sabse badi baat, kuch bade investors apna stake exit karne ka plan bana rahe hain, jisse short term mein stock par pressure aa sakta hai.
Total market cap around ₹23,900 Cr hai. Sab kuch mila kar dekhein toh company achha perform kar rahi hai, par 'Very Expensive' valuation aur existing investors ke exit plans short term mein dikat de sakte hain. Debt-to-equity ratio 2.81 hai, jo NBFC sector ke liye normal hai, par asset quality par nazar rakhni hogi. Banks ya bade NBFCs ke muqable jahan P/E kam hai, wahan CreditAccess Grameen ko apna premium justify karne ke liye zabardast performance deni hogi.
Emkay ne long term mein AUM growth 20-25% aur RoA 4.5-5% ka forecast diya hai, jo ki positive hai. Par short term mein stock ka future investors ke exit karne aur market ke valuation par react karne par depend karega. NBFC sector mein growth slow hone aur profit margins peak hone ke bhi trends dikh rahe hain. Analysts bhi confuse hain, ratings split between 'Buy' aur 'Hold', aur ek 'Strong Sell' rating bhi hai, yeh dekh kar ki current valuation sustain hoga ya nahi.