Whalesbook
Achanak profits mein itni tezi? Kya hua CUB ke saath?
Dekho, City Union Bank (CUB) ne FY26 ke Q4 mein true mein kamaal dikhaya hai. Unka net profit ₹360 Crore pahunch gaya hai, jo FY25 ke same quarter se 25% upar hai. Yeh badhotri unke Net Interest Income (NII) mein 31% ki zordaar jump (ab ₹786 Crore) ki wajah se hui hai. Aur asset quality ki baat karein toh, Gross NPA 1.91% par aa gaya hai, jo pichhle saal 3.09% tha. Net NPA bhi 0.68% ho gaya hai (pehle 1.25%). Itne acche numbers dekh kar CUB ka stock market mein 8.2% bhaga, jo August 2020 ke baad sabse badi single-day gain thi! Bank ki market value ab ₹20,500 Crore ke aas-paas hai aur stock saal mein ab tak 51.92% badh gaya hai!
Par profit ke saath kuch tension bhi hai!
Abhi jo figures aaye hain, woh toh badhiya hain. Lekin agar thoda detail mein dekhein toh kuch chintaayein bhi hain. CUB ka Net Interest Margin (NIM) pichhle 3 saal se gir raha hai aur ab 2.91% par hai. Jabki Karur Vysya Bank jaise competitors ka NIM 3.75% hai. Loan book 26.49% badh kar ₹66,699 Crore ho gayi hai FY26 mein, lekin NII mein quarter-on-quarter growth sirf 4.5% lag raha hai. Management toh loan growth mid-to-high teens mein expect kar raha hai, khas kar MSMEs, gold loans aur secured retail par focus karke. Nayi liquidity rules (April 1, 2026 se effective) system mein paisa laa sakti hain, jo credit growth ko help kar sakta hai. Par sawal ye hai ki kya yeh liquidity, slow deposit growth aur tight competition ke beech margin pressure ko overcome kar paayegi.
Valuation ka chakkar: Kya CUB mehnga hai?
Abhi jo P/E ratio chal raha hai CUB ka, woh hai 15x-17x. Yeh State Bank of India (SBI) ke 12x-13x aur Karur Vysya Bank ke 10.2x se kaafi upar hai. Federal Bank ka P/E 12.4x hai. Matlab, CUB ko market premium de raha hai, bhale hi rivals ke paas better NIMs ho sakte hain. Pichhle 5 saalon mein CUB ki earnings growth 15.7% rahi hai, jo industry ke average 28.7% se kam hai. Aur haan, ₹10,792 Crore ki contingent liabilities bhi ek risk factor hai. Future earnings growth bhi 15.1% predict ho rahi hai, jo market ke 17.6% se kam hai. Phir bhi, 21 analysts mein se 18 log 'Buy' rating de rahe hain, average target ₹307.90 de rahe hain (matlab 11.70% upside). Lekin kuch analysts jaise HDFC Securities aur ICICI Securities ne target kam rakhe hain, toh sabki rai ek jaisi nahi hai.
Analyst Expectations Kya Kehti Hain?
Aage chal kar analysts ko CUB se ummeed hai. FY27 mein EPS growth 20.61% aur FY28 mein 24.22% hone ki ummeed hai. Loan growth 17% CAGR se hone wala hai FY26-28 ke beech. Nayi liquidity rules agar deposit growth stable raha toh credit growth ko aur boost de sakte hain.